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Important update for the new @TNTCapitalC followers.

This post will help you understand the culture, philosophy, and thesis behind this channel.

Three months ago, we reached out to Killa (back when we still respected his approach as a quant-driven trader) with a clear warning:

Do not go long BTC at $50k.

Longing there is effectively suicide.

Once Bitcoin tags $50k, the liquidity vacuum, institutional distribution, and cascading margin calls make a rapid move towards the low $40ks highly probable, almost inevitable.

In fact, it will start around 53-55k.

We spent real time trying to protect his capital. We told him to wait for the low $40ks before even considering a long position, and to completely discard any near-term $100k target.

In another life, we advised high-net-worth clients with low six-figure to low seven-figure portfolios, helping them allocate capital, manage risk, and compound wealth over the long term. We've helped many people build their first million, and many millionaires compound their wealth even further.

Even on X, over the past few months, we've had the privilege of publicly helping several people capture significant gains, some exceeding 500k+ USDT in profits across BTC, ETH, HYPE and TAO mostly.

We don't take credit for anyone else's success; everyone makes their own decisions and takes their own risk. We're simply grateful that our research, frameworks, and market perspectives have been useful to those following along.

Regarding Killa. The irony is almost perfect.

Killa's original plan was exactly what we warned against: going long at $50k.

True story.

He then abandoned that plan (which was already suicidal)... only to start macro-longing above $60k instead.

The very setup we said wouldn't work at $50k, he executed at an even higher price.

Do you know why a $50k long doesn't work?

It comes down to game theory and market psychology.

No one is going to be able to long BTC at $50k on the first attempt this year with a $48k stop-loss.

If it were that easy, we'd do it ourselves and make $50 million USDT on the trade.

We've been macro trading for a long time. An opportunity like that simply doesn't exist.

And if it does, we'll long BTC at $50k and retire.

This is the permanent gap between the top 1% and everyone else.

Elite traders live in the margins. They study positioning, probabilities, and market psychology.

Market makers won't let everyone buy BTC at $50k with a $48k stop-loss and a $100k take-profit.

Average traders live in the narrative.

The edge is almost never the big directional call.

From what we've observed over the years, most average traders have roughly a 50% hit rate, they're right half the time and wrong half the time.

The problem is they anchor on their winning trades, overestimate their edge, and mentally extrapolate isolated successes into a repeatable advantage.

That's what @KillaXBT is currently doing.

Edge is often the disciplined refusal to pay up for mediocre risk/reward.

Edge is also the willingness to sit in cash while the crowd chases.

It's the precision of entry, position sizing, and invalidation, the small, unglamorous decisions that compound into survival and, eventually, outperformance.

After 2 decades of experience, we can tell you one thing:

@KillaXBT won't most likely survive this cycle, not as a trader, anyway.

He'll make money through fees and by selling private courses, sure. But not as a trader.

Most traders don't lose because they're wrong about the thesis. They lose because they can't tolerate the margin of safety required to be right.

And then ego takes over.

Emotional decision-making, behavioural biases, and the inability to adapt to changing market conditions are what ultimately separate surviving traders from the ones who get wiped out.

We told @killa not to go long at $50k. We have more experience than he does and a stronger track record.

He should at least assign a 1% probability to our scenario and 99% to his own. But right now, he is assigning 100% certainty to his view.

And he is mocking others.

Same with @CryptoCon_. He has more experience than Killa.

Yet now he's going long on BTC above $60k while mocking $40k.

Ironically, $40k isn't even @CryptoCon_'s own long entry. (He is waiting for 29k)

To reiterate, Killa won't make it as a trader this cycle.

We understand risk management, capital allocation, and what actually produces alpha, better than most.

BTC long above 60k
TP 150k
Liquidation 32k

Funny.

Killa says he will delete his X account if BTC touches 32k in 2026.

What an irony.

What’s notable is that Killa was doing pretty well up until that point. All he had to do was not say or do anything stupid…