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August 2025...

The drawdown nobody wants to mention.

Nobody wants to talk about it.

Most are still licking their wounds from the 08/25 bloodbath. They bury it, delete the charts, and move on as if it never happened.

The wife knows it was bad...

But she doesn't know just how bad.

The kids are too young to understand.

So everything gets swept under the rug.

But we don't do that here.

We study it. We build a case study around those lessons.

We learn from it. We adapt. We get stronger. And make more money on the next inflection point.

Because the market rewards those who remember, and punishes those who forget.

We embrace the pain. Pain is alpha fuel. Pain is tuition.

Pain allows you to build a reservoir of experience that helps you avoid making the same costly mistakes in the future.

A man is not truly forged without his fair share of pain.

2020 was painful to us, 2018 was very very painful to us, 2016 painful lessons too.

2025 was painful to some of you.

2022 was painful to some (not to us this time)

ETH is sitting minus 60% off the highs on a clean one-year basis.

Sentiment is in the gutter. Crypto is dead. It’s a scam. When’s ETH going back to all time high and then to $20,000?

In 2020 we watched it drop 30% in a single session. In 2017-18 we lived through 95% drawdowns. Plenty of TNT capital OGs have the battle scars to prove it, you can see it in the comments.

So here’s the real onboarding question we ask every new joiner:

If the early crew had their conviction stress-tested in the forge, multiple 70-95% drawdowns, multi-year bear markets, total despair, family judging us, friends questioning our decisions.

Like addicts...

Why the hell do you think you get a participation trophy just because you showed up later?

This is a genuine question.

Why would coming later be more rewarding?

Because of the Coinbase IPO cycle?

Because Saylor kept buying on TV?

Because "this time it’s institutional"?

You think you’re protected from the next leg lower simply by joining at a "safer" valuation?

But financial institutions thought the same thing. In many ways, financial institutions are just retail investors with a corporate logo. They don't know any better than you do.

Otherwise, why didn't they buy Bitcoin between $2K and $10K?

Why was their average entry price closer to $80K?

Are they dumb? No.

But they experienced FOMO, just like everyone else, and many got caught up in the Saylor narrative.

Also, many financial institutions are primarily focused on collecting fees and providing investment products to clients. Their business model depends more on assets under management than on whether a specific financial product goes up or down.

This includes investments made by everyday clients, such as your grandparents. When your grandpa buys an ETF through a fund, that capital is classified as "institutional money" because it is being managed through an institutional vehicle.

But is your grandpa really an institution?

Not exactly.

A large portion of what is called "institutional money" is simply aggregated retail capital managed by institutions. It's your grandpa's money.

Don't forget that roughly half of hedge funds lose money in any given year. The same is true for many venture capital firms. They also lose your grandpa's money.

Most financial institutions are far less profitable than people think.

Financial institutions having a edge, is mostly BS.

Unless you are Blackrock.

That's why many institutions have recently realized they made a mistake, they bought the top.

If crypto is suddenly that safe, why is 90% of the retail cohort still bleeding PnL? Why isn’t your equity curve reflecting that same hopium?

Most people in TNT aren’t even here to be perma-bears. And not everyone’s a dedicated shorter.

Most seem to be here because they finally realized they’ve been sold a bag of narrative for years, and they’re done getting rugged by hopium.

They are done with lies.

We’re not doom & gloom.

We’re just brutally P&L oriented.

Right now the market structure is not rewarding long-macro beta. Full stop. When it does, we’ll be there, size on, conviction maxed, buying the undervalued setup like vultures on fresh roadkill.

Until then? Shorting gives you something most long-only degens never get: immediate, honest feedback.

The market speaks in dollars. Your PnL is the only truth that matters. No cope. No hopium. Just cold, hard alpha.

Drawdowns aren’t bugs.

They can be considered as the feature that separates the survivors from the tourists.

BTC is still going to 41k

The best way to make money is by shorting BTC

What happens when BTC hits 40k area?

We will bounce, and hard.

Does it mean we are suddenly going to 170k?

No, but good volatility awaits. And many new opportunities to make money again.

Patience...

Don't throw away your life savings by buying garbage at any price level just because some Twitter influencers, with little understanding of economics, finance, or even basic mathematics, tell you to.

Do your own research. Think critically. Protect your capital.

The market will always offer opportunities, but only those who preserve their capital will be there to take advantage of them.

Only those who 2x short BTC in Q3 2026 😜