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Daily Market Report #801

Spain are world champions.

They beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time last night, with Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute after Enzo Fernández was sent off late in normal time.

Argentina barely had a shot all game, managing only 2 across the full 120 minutes.

That was probably the last time we will see Messi at a World Cup, ending in defeat in New Jersey.

Spain were the better team throughout the tournament and fully deserved it.

The summer is over, the tournament is finished, and now the 4-year wait begins.

It already feels empty.

Drake managed to lose $1.5M in USDT after betting on Argentina to win, which is its own kind of ending.

Prediction markets accounted for 27% of all World Cup betting this year, so the on-chain casino had a real World Cup.

Oil is the main thing to watch.

It climbed to $83.66 as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continued and US strikes remained ongoing.

With oil now above $83, every additional dollar makes the inflation picture worse, just as the Fed already has an excuse to remain hawkish.

The data calendar is relatively light until the second half of the week.

ADP comes on Tuesday.

Tesla and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday.

Jobless claims and Intel come on Thursday.

PMI and home sales arrive on Friday.

Mega-cap technology earnings are the real risk.

If the AI names disappoint while the Nasdaq is already heading toward its worst July in 22 years, that could become a serious problem.

Gold is at $4,018.

Silver is at $56.93.

The 10-year yield is at 4.57%.

The crypto market is quiet at the start of the week.

Fear & Greed is at 29, its highest level in weeks, but still inside fear.

Prices have remained near the top of this range for days, yet sentiment still refuses to turn.

That is the same standoff we have seen throughout the entire bounce.

Bitcoin is at $64,502, basically flat and continuing to hold the range around $64K.

There is nothing new driving it today, while the put/call ratio remains tilted bullishly after last week.

Ethereum is at $1,868 and remains the leader, sitting just below $2,000.

It has done the difficult work of recovering from outside the top 100, and $2K is now the level everyone is watching.

Solana is at $76.50, up slightly but still stuck near its lows while the rest of the market has recovered.

XRP is at $1.10.

Barely anything moved overnight.

Zcash finally experienced a larger pullback.

It is at $532, down 4.7%, marking its first genuine red day after spending a month as the best-performing asset I hold.

After the run it had, a pullback is nothing dramatic.

Monero is at $334, acting as the anchor.

Chainlink is at $8.42, quietly continuing its strongest run in ages.

Hyperliquid is at $60.10, back around $60 and still looking soft.

Bittensor is at $196.

Polkadot is down 3.1%, making it the weakest name today.

Arbitrum is at $0.0866.

SwissBorg is at $0.1550, up 2.3% and holding its own again.

The story that matters most today.

Consensys hired a North Korean developer using the fake name Tyler Knapp.

He worked on MetaMask’s core code for nearly 1 month before being discovered.

Consensys revoked his access, paused releases, conducted a complete audit, and confirmed that there were no backdoors and no funds were lost.

But he still spent nearly 1 month inside MetaMask’s core systems.

The detail that should frighten everyone is that the same person previously worked at Ankr, Blueberry, DEPO, Pickle Finance, and Harmony.

All 5 projects were later exploited.

That does not look like a coincidence.

It looks like a pattern involving a state actor placing developers inside crypto projects that are later drained.

During the same week MetaMask turned 10, it nearly became compromised at the source.

Check who is committing code to the applications you trust with your money.

On the building side, there are a few developments I care about.

Pudgy Penguins launched Pengu plushies in every Target store across the US, marking its biggest retail push yet.

My Lil Pudgy bag keeps turning into an actual toy brand sitting on real shelves.

The Mickey Mouse path is playing out for real.

Hyperliquid is also rolling out permissionless HIP-4 outcome markets.

However, deploying one requires staking 500K HYPE, which is a huge commitment and shows how seriously the venue is taking the builders it allows onto the platform.

Cardano activated its van Rossem hard fork, reducing smart-contract costs ahead of a larger scalability upgrade later this year.

Back to a normal week now.

There is no match tonight, just the market.

What are you watching?