코인톡

Daily Market Report #795

It is Tuesday, and tonight is the match I have been circling all tournament: France against Spain in the World Cup semifinal.

The war got worse overnight.

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, strikes are still going both ways, and the US is signaling that bigger strikes could come soon.

Oil jumped to $79.85, closing in on $80, so the war premium that had completely disappeared is fully back. So good I filled up my tank few days ago

Gold slipped to $4,021. Silver is at $57.86.

CPI comes out today, and if it comes in hot while the Fed is already leaning toward a hike and oil is spiking because of Hormuz, that is a bad combination, with inflation pressure coming from two directions at once.

If it comes in soft, the bounce gets another leg.

Crypto is holding up better than I expected.

Bitcoin is at $62,672, basically where it was yesterday, absorbing the Hormuz news without breaking.

Ethereum is at $1,784, up slightly and still refusing to lose the $1,750 area.

Solana is at $75.05, still weak.

Fear & Greed dropped back to 22, putting us in extreme fear again.

$58M of the $71M in Bitcoin liquidations were longs, with buyers getting flushed again on the dip.

Bitcoin remaining flat on a day when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz is a signal of its own.

It is holding up better than stocks, and people are starting to argue that Bitcoin is becoming less sensitive to geopolitical shocks.

BlackRock and the desks are buying again.

Standard Chartered called Bitcoin a screaming buy with a $100K target, while Real Vision says we are in the second half of the bear market.

Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is at its lowest level since 2022, and they are reading it in completely opposite ways.

The Coinbase premium has now been negative for a record 55 straight days, with US buyers remaining weaker than the rest of the world throughout the entire move down.

It also became law overnight that the US has officially banned a CBDC until 2031.

The split I have written about all year is now written into law.

Ethereum is at $1,784, and whales added another $20.6M even through 8 days of outflows.

The accumulation refuses to stop.

The Ethereum Foundation’s AI testing agent also found a bug that can remotely crash validator clients, and it is now being tracked as a real CVE.

Chainlink is at $7.93, one of the few green names.

Bittensor is down 3.4% to $199, back below $200.

Hyperliquid is at $63.35, down 3.2% and still fading from its highs.

Zcash finally took a breather.

It is at $505, down 2.4%, but still holding above $500 after the best 2-week run in my universe.

Monero is at $322, down with it.

Starknet is at $0.0290, and its unlock is tomorrow.

Arbitrum’s unlock comes on the 16th, so both of my smaller bags have fresh supply hitting the market this week.

Solana is at $75.05, and one number says it all.

Solana’s quarterly fees dropped 78% to $51M, its worst quarter since 2023.

That is the memecoin engine dying in one statistic.

When the casino was running, Solana printed fees.

The tokenized-stock volume is real, but it does not replace what the memecoins were paying.

Total stablecoin supply shed $10B, the worst decline since the Terra crash, which points to real liquidity leaving crypto.

At the same time, Circle received final approval for a national trust bank, Japan’s Lawson is trialing stablecoin payments, Hyundai is piloting USDT on Avalanche, and BlackRock’s BUIDL topped $900M on the chain.

Supply is shrinking while institutional adoption accelerates.

An IMF paper also warned that dollar stablecoins could trigger currency crises in countries with fixed pegs, showing how the same technology can have completely different effects depending on where you sit.

The KOSPI triggered its circuit breaker again as AI stocks sold off, continuing the same violent unwind we saw in Asia yesterday.

Apple sued OpenAI over alleged trade-secret theft, with lawsuits between the giants continuing to pile up.

GPT-5.6 Sonnet deleted user file systems during testing.

Grok 4.5 topped the coding benchmarks, edging out Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, so the model race has a new leader again this week.

Anthropic also extended Fable 5 access on paid plans.

There seems to be a new best model almost every week now.

What are you watching?