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In buying CryptoPunks, there are 2 categories:

1st - a Punk that is represent you, this is avatar-worthy punks.

2nd - Just another Punk in your collection (your 2nd, 3rd, or a floor punks for your speculation/art collection purpose.

Your approach to buy punks in these 2 categories should be very different.

Let take this CryptoPunks #1001 for example.

This punk is offered Nov-2, 2025 for 45 ETH and has since never moved the Ask.

There are Bidders laddered up from 38 ETH ($129K as of Nov-5, 2025) to start with by a533 up to 40 ETH ($84K as of May-24, 2026) by e3a5.

I think the final buyer, 9937, made the right call to buy the Punks outright, instead of making another bid at 42 ETH or something to try to buy the Punk cheap.

Punks is a significant investment. Optimally we want to buy Punks at lowest price possible. However, let look at the seller in this case:

- Buy the Punk at 110 ETH (Apr-2022) vs 65 ETH floor for a whooping 70% premium vs floor.
- List the Punk at 45 ETH (Nov-2025), 59% discount vs acquisition price.
- From USD perspective: The person bought at $327K and offer at $173K, a 47% discount on USD-term.
- The seller was incredibly inactive, never adjust the price, never take the punk off shelve, regardless of a lot of movements in the market since Nov-2025 till now.

Vs this type of seller, if you really like the Punk, and if the price is close enough, you should buy the punk outright.

How fair is the Ask in current price regime? Argurably, this punk is probably the best looking Punk on its Ask price down to floor price-band. Nothing from 45 ETH and less is as good looking as this punk. Similar good looking Punks are traded around 38-42 ETH. So argurably, fair value based on comparables point to top-end of that band, 42 ETH, as the benchmark for fair value, and the Ask at the premium on top.

45 ETH vs 42 ETH is about 7% premium vs fair value.

Now the question is: if you like the Punk and with a Punk at this caliber: avatar-worthy, representative for you is in the market, would you trade off this 7% premum for a fair-value buy at 42 ETH or you buy it at +7% premium for 45 ETH?

In my view, it is always a buying outright call at this situation.

People truly underestimate how hard it is to find a Punk that you really like and can represent you.

Yes Punks has 10,000 NFTs, and it is historic. But a meaningful chunk of it is ugly looking punks that serve culture/art collection/speculation/inflation-hedge floor-value that you won't find the Punk can represent you.

Another reasonable percent of Punks are in institutional hands and inactive, unknown wallets, and not likely to offload to the market entities that you won't be able to buy at any time soon (by soon I mean 2-3 years to start with).

The amount of Punks that in the market and in the move is I think about 30%, or 3K Punks, in which 1K Punk is actively list and can be a show-list, which price is unrealistic for you to buy unless the floor get materially higher.

So yes, the diagrams that conclude to an avatar-worthy user-represent Punk that (1) On the market, (2) At reasonable price vs value, (3) You really like personally - is tighter and much more difficult to come by than people think.

It takes me 6 months to buy my first punk even though I have capital ready for a much longer time. Even so I can only buy a 7/10-score punk and I didn't hold it for long. There is other punks that I hunt for in years. And it still goes to other people's hand because Im not in the communication line to buy or my private bid is not strong enough.

When a punk like that is gone, it can be years before the punk appears in the market again. You are either looking for: (1) the buyer upgrade her punk, or (2) the buyer is now desparate for money and need liquidity (in many case they can collateralize the Punk and take loans).

Meaning, with all of the complexity, a punk like this #1001 when gone, it can be 3-5 years for it to return to the market is not something unusual at all.

Given that, I feel sorry for e3a5 to not buy this punk outright at 45 ETH, instead of the bid at 40 ETH. On USD value, 40 ETH bid on May-24 is $84K. Even larger than transacted price of 45 ETH ($81K today).

a533 the first bidder also bid 38 ETH last year at $127K. The USD value was also much higher than the $81K transacted value today.

Both of these bidders have only one Punk in their wallet. And they are good looking Punks. Not as stunning as #1001, but the bid represent a Punk-upgrade, not just simply another buy on the collection.

If you buy another punk to increase allocation to Punks on your portfolio, return is the most important factor. Thus you can be razor thin in transacting punks. A 5% upside opprtunity come frequently, 10% upside opportunity comes less frequent but not a 3-5 years wait.

When a punk like you and speaks to you come around, if you miss him/her, it can be a few years wait for a similar opportunity.

How much should we price this emotional and personal aspect? For me personally, I can price 20%+ premium vs fair value.

Yes I know Im buying it expensive. But so does mostly everyone else out there with punks they truly like.

Taking into account returns is a complicated matter. You buy it expensive, can you wait for ETH floor to rise or USD floor to rise to compensate for the premium? It might decline, too. Thus that's why you can't pay premium and flip it short. You must hold it for a long time so that the digital art / historical NFT collection / inflation hedge - play into your buy.

Fortunately, current price regime is the most favorable for long-term accumulation:
- Punks price after 2021 rarely goes below $50K in USD price.
- In ETH-term, it is 25-30 ETH mark the floor. We are right there.
- In BTC-term, it is about 0.8-0.9x BTC mark the floor. We are also right there.

If you buy something expensive today for the thing that you like, yes you pay 10% premium vs fair value because you like the punk, but the future probably reward you with premium expansion and floor-price appreciation than premium contraction and floor-price depreciation.

Macro is in the buyer's hand right now. You just don't see it yet.

But does it matter if the price is reasonable and within range of a transaction?

Pay the premium, go for the punk you like, because you never know when your punk comes circle around or if it is not coming back at all.