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$btc longs - why I haven't shorted in weeks and still don't want to short.

When do we go for our sixth win in a row? The story of 66k.

The TPO outlook (the only $btc chart you need right now)

Alright posted a recap of five wins in a row recently. Time to start shaping the plan and outlook for our sixth win in a row (if given), as it have a minor chance of offering itself, as well as give a brief update on what to do with win 4 and win 5 (already locked in), where we aim for optimal tail gains (remainders we are holding).

Spoilers, nothing of the gameplan has changed, really (expect 66k, longs only, no shorts yet, and a bottom forming).

So to keep it fresh, I am giving a refreshing update here with a quick TPO outlook. Not a chart I often post or share but it gives a clean perspective on the trades I took recently, and why I am still just waiting and holding my longs. I'll summarize in two messages what I am doing and why:

Message 1:

I am holding my existing longs from 59.5k and 61.8k, to target our beloved and final target of 66k. As announced, have been stubborn on taking any partials further beyond locking in the W on each as I am highly confident in the level. If you're new to my page, it's the target I have been calling for for weeks now. No doubt my core followers are tired of hearing it by now.

It has been programmed and it still is programmed, it is the target and I repeat the message I said when we were below 60k: I still believe we will see it without making any new lows.

We are a lot closer now, so it looks a lot better now, but we still have ways of resistance to go.

Message 2:

I am not adding exposure unless we take out the poor lows in the 61-62k area first.

Why? Because we are already strongly exposed. So adding anything more is the "bet big area". And with poor lows below and already exposed decently long, there is no point in adding any more here.

So, that's not me saying "we will see them, we will see sub 61k guaranteed". In an uptrend, and especially with a level of high confidence I have in mind, 66k, I do not think we see it guaranteed. Why do you think I went long from 59.5k and 61.8k and held large chunks of my position despite the poor lows forming in the process?

And why do you think I am not shorting towards that level? It's mindless, it's pointless, it's gambling and throwing money away. It is an entry in an environment you should already be heavily exposed long if you followed my calls, it is not an exit.

It's because when my 66k level is activated, and the uptrend emerges, they are not a necessity to get taken out.

But if they get taken out, then we reach into "bet big" territory. And thus I will bet big for a sixth long in the streak, especially if the poor highs have not been taken out yet. And that's exactly when long VI will be born.

Summary of gameplan

So the summary is simple: the bias on the daily has been and still remains bullish until at least 66k (for beyond, I will update you once we hit it, let's get paid on this long first).

The longs we took are the actions towards achieving 66k and get paid substantially on it.

To get paid even more and bet big, I want to see 61k taken out and the H12 POI get reached (red box).

Otherwise, simply take out 66k and take profits, leaving 10% runners on each trade active (since my weekly bias is bullish - runners are in lockstep with my weekly bias).

And so where we are now, no actions need to be taken.

My biases summarized:

➡️Weekly bias: bullish. I believe the 60k region is the bottom and the bears expecting sub 50k or lower are wrong.
➡️Daily bias: bullish. I expect 66k without seeing new lows. 66k is above us, price moves up, not down and should be traded long when times are opportune
➡️Hourly: expecting the range to continue. We are a weekend after a bullish leg up in macro bottom territory, so price action should be expected slow. On top, going below 61k is likely what will bounce price back higher, i.e. continuing the hourly range.

That is my gameplan, and frankly, has been for a long time with the new adjustment the high conviction long I will ad when we take out 61k (no guarantees). And I will follow this plan with delusional confidence, patience and persistence until proven wrong.

(Where every entry, exit and change in plan will be called live by the way)

Discipline, is what makes the dream of trading work. The dream of endless extraction of money for little to no work, out of thin air, filled with a dose of dopamine and thrill every time it works out.

And I believe this gameplan will work out yet again.