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$BTC Update: Let’s break down the last two weeks of price action and what it may tell us about the coming week ✍️

In my previous post, I called for a sweep of the lows into the start of the month, based on OrderFlow. That sweep came with shorts aggressively selling into the low, were absorbed by passive buyers, and ultimately became trapped - very strong low with OrderFlow confirmation (see linked post). https://t.co/6xNt250rS3

Phase 1: Strong low, strong response
What followed was a strong bounce from a well-defended low. Passive buyers stepped in with size, while spot buying, fresh longs, and trapped shorts closing all helped drive price higher. Price consistently held above the newly established monthly value area. Even with Trump reheating geopolitical tensions in the microwave for the 20th-time, BTC strongly bounced from the monthly value mean/mVWAP.

Phase 2: Weakening bounce
The character of the move then changed.
Spot began distributing, while the rally became increasingly driven by shorts closing rather than genuine demand. Spot selling while price rises because shorts are covering is one of the weakest forms of upside price action we can find in the textbook. As price approached monthly VAH, I was therefore aggressively looking for hedge shorts to protect against a rotation back toward monthly VAL.
That rotation never came. My two hedge short attempts got stopped with a loss, as my longs continued to print.

Phase 3: Buyers return with intent
Spot selling then slowed, and fresh longs began entering with conviction again.
Despite heavy supply resting in the order book, buyers continued to work through it and reclaimed monthly value. Price was rising while order-book depth to the upside was falling, showing that available supply was actively being consumed and becoming thinner while passive buyers were reloading their bids and chasing price building a strong floor below.

Current phase: Sellers are active, but ineffective
The longs that pushed through supply are now beginning to close, creating market selling. Spot has also started distributing again. Yet price continues to hold around monthly VAH. Both perpetual and spot order-book depth remain clearly positive, even with price sitting near the highs and at the edge of value.
Sellers are active, but they are not achieving meaningful downside. Their selling continues to be absorbed by passive buyers across both spot and perpetual markets.

💡 What to expect next week:

For price to continue higher with real strength, buyers need to step back in with conviction soon!!
That means:
- Spot buying
- Fresh longs opening
- Continued absorption beneath price

Until that happens, there is no confirmed upside continuation!

However, passive buyers are still building a strong foundation. A real floor is forming directly beneath price while BTC sits just below key highs.
Most of the longs that drove the previous move have already exited (reduction in pot. forced selling pressure), while new shorts are showing limited effect.

The moment spot buyers and fresh longs return with intent, this structure could support a sustainable move higher.

A breakout would then clear major highs, break the current bearish structure, confirm acceptance back into current range value, thus open the door to a much larger upside rotation!

Selling is still having very little effect. The few shorts entering the market continue to get absorbed. But buyers must show intent before we can confidently expect continuation. If they do, I expect a green, trending week with the potential to extend into the $70K–$80K region.

If buyers fail to show up soon and the floor beneath price begins to crack, acceptance back inside monthly value would likely trigger a rotation toward mVWAP and monthly VAL around $60K.

But for now, the floor is holding and there is no major weakness to call!

👉 We are at a VERY key pivot across all time frames, and the next move depends on whether aggressive buyers step in before passive demand begins to crack!

Updates will follow...