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Weekly #BTC Technical Analysis 🧙‍♂️

My chart shows a classic post-ATH structure: impulsive rise in 2024-2025, then distribution with a bullish chop, and now a correction within a wide range.
The mitigated open bottom at 1.07M (68%) is the key spot – this is where institutions likely defended or reloaded.
Current price ~62k, just above the confluence support (horizontal + old structural low).
What stands out: Upper open bottom at 2.14M (84% fresh): Strong resistance around 90-100k, a supply zone where sellers distributed heavily. As long as we remain below this, there is an overall bearish bias.
Current mitigated open bottom: Bullish reaction after the test, with wick rejection. This is often a sign that smart money has absorbed the sell-off. High implied volume on the base.

Lower OB 3.06M (58% fresh): Massive support below (~30k zone?), but we're far from it; it acts as the ultimate backstop.
Overall structure: Lower highs since the top, but the last leg down created a relative higher low at the support. The horizontal red line (~70k?) acts as a major pivot.

Multi-TF Confluence: Weekly: Price is testing the 200w SMA (~62-63k). Close above = bullish flip. Below = bearish continuation.
Daily/4H: Rebound from the mitigated zone, with potential displacement if we break the local highs. RSI not significantly oversold, but momentum is shifting.
Volume & Liquidity: Sweep of the lows + mitigation = classic liquidity grab before reversal or continuation.

Main risk: Re-rejection of this mitigated OB → retest 58-60k. Strong scenario: Hold + breakout above the next resistance = push towards 70k+ with BOS (break of structure). This is a high-probability setup for swing trading if we respect the OB (outbound balance).

Fundamental BTC Analysis 🕯️

We are in the midst of a cycle shift: the 2024 halving is no longer the primary driver. US spot ETFs dominate – they have accumulated over 1.2M BTC (~5.8% of the total supply), with AUM around $76B+. Recent flows are mixed: +$263M one day, but net outflows over the week (-$1.8B cumulative recent). BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity remain the major buyers, absorbing the new supply mining without any problems.

On-chain & Macro: LTH (Long Term Holders) are accumulating again during the dip – a sign of conviction.

A lot of BTC is underwater (over 10 million coins at a loss), with realized profit/loss ratios at their lowest → retail capitulation, absorption by large players.
High correlation with equities, sensitive to Fed rates and overall liquidity. No hardcore recession, but risk-off periods (geopoli, sticky inflation) are weighing on the market.
Adoption: Corporates are staking (Strategy, etc.), stablecoins, and potential new inflows from 401k/regulation. Annual BTC inflation ~0.8%, tougher than gold.

Bull thesis: ETFs + long-term accumulation = latent supply shock → rally towards 100-150k by the end of 2026 if the macroeconomic outlook improves. Bear thesis: Prolonged outflows + tight macroeconomics = 55-75k range for months. We are in a bear-to-range transition, with the OB (Overall Orders) as the exact map.

Horizon Expectations 🐦‍

Short-term LTF (4H/Daily, next 1-7 days): We are on the mitigated OB – watch for a bullish displacement if volume increases. Immediate target 65-68k (next FVG or local resistance). Stop below the mitigation low (~60k). 60% bounce probability here, as the support holds and shorts are crowded.

This week:
Consolidation around 61-64k. Weekly close >62.3-63k = strong signal for bulls (reclaim 200w SMA). Otherwise, chop or slight retest of the mitigated support. Watch out for historically weak Mondays.

Current month (July): Trading range 58-68k likely, with a test of the mitigated OB as a pivot. If we defend and ETFs return to net inflows, setup for a bullish end to the month towards 70k+. Alternative scenario: Flush to 57k if macro shocks, but your lower support remains far away.

August: Often a seasonal correction, but with solid OB support and on-chain accumulation, I'm leaning towards a grind up to 75-80k if the weekly BOS is confirmed. Risk of a bearish fakeout mid-month if the Fed is hawkish.

September: Classically strong for BTC. Major breakout potential if we break out of the current range – target 85-100k if the upper OBs start to be tested. This is the month when institutions often reposition. If rejected, back to the 60k range. Overall bias: Constructive on the mitigated support, with a bullish edge as long as the OB holds. Trade the price reaction, not the hope.

Log Summary (My Trader Notes)
Chart key: Mitigated OB 1.07M hold → premium accumulation zone. Bias: Cautious bull LTF, neutral weekly, upside bias monthly if confluence occurs.

Risk: <60k clear = invalidation, target 55k.

Reward: >65k = momentum shift, 75-90k next legs.
Action: Accumulate dips on the open interest, scale out resistances. Reasonable size, patience for confirmation.

I'll keep you updated. In the meantime, we're cutting our teeth on altcoin volatility with reversal scalping.

Link to the premium Algo script used:
https://t.co/ugmZPicohl

#CryptoHolders #bitcoin