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Daily Market Report #787

It is Monday, and I am ready for the week. The football gave us a proper weekend, the last knockout matches finish today and tomorrow, England beat Mexico. But the real talk of the tournament is the FIFA scandal, a red card getting suspended.

In all my years watching this game, I have never seen a straight red simply undone like that. Whatever is going on behind the scenes at FIFA, that is not a football decision, and the whole internet knows it.

But we are used to this sadly Iii front of our eyes.

Bitcoin $63,208, up 0.8%, back above $63K and building on the whole relief run. ETH $1,777, up 0.7%, still the healthiest name on the board. SOL $80.81. BNB ripped to $584, up 2.2%. XRP $1.15.

Fear & Greed is at 24, up from 12 a week ago, which tells the whole story of these 7 days. Doubled off the bottom, still nowhere near greed.

Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio hit a 43-month low over the weekend, a level that has historically marked major bottoms. Pair that with BTC closing a full week below its 200-week moving average for the first time in about 4 years, and you have the 2 classic fingerprints of a deep-cycle low.

Gold $4,156, silver $61.83, both holding their recovery. The weak jobs print on Thursday, 57,000 versus 115,000 expected, is still the fuel, keeping September off the table for a hike.

The next FOMC is July 28-29, and CPI on July 14 comes first. Warsh runs on strategic ambiguity, so the tone will matter more than the decision. This bounce was built on a soft Fed door, and that door can swing shut on one hot inflation print.

ETH $1,777, and the story keeps getting better under the price. TVL is up 7.3% on the week, the strongest chain flows anywhere, and the Lean Ethereum roadmap I wrote about yesterday is still sinking in across the space.

Dankrad Feist says the 3-4 year timeline is too slow and AI could ship it in 1, and Ignas flagged that the Foundation has a history of missing deadlines.

The vision is right: quantum safety and privacy as first-class goals. The question is whether an org that just cut 20% of its staff can actually deliver it on time.

Ambition is cheap. Shipping is everything, and Ethereum’s whole comeback now rides on execution.

HYPE $71.60, up 4.1%, back above $71 and firmly leading my universe, with Multicoin’s $319 call aging better every green day.

LINK $7.98, back at $8 with the 47-bank settlement live.

ARB $0.0797, still carrying the Robinhood Chain weight from last week.

ZEC $455, TAO $214, and PENGU $0.0067, up 2%.

Solana $80.81, and here is the honest note I keep returning to. The bounce was memecoin-fueled, with ANSEM up another 29% today, but the fundamentals underneath have actually softened. Monthly active users fell to a 2-year low, fees are down 50% since January, and TVL is well off its peak.

Sui hit over 6M TPS on its public mainnet, a genuinely huge throughput number, and it is the chain I was standing in a room full of bankers for 2 weeks ago.

Watching Sui put up numbers like that while remembering that event, the suits are not playing around.

The privacy thread keeps tightening into something I care about deeply. Vitalik’s 13-day-old challenge to prove AI can shred online anonymity still has no winner, quietly one of the more important results of the month, and it feeds straight into why Lean Ethereum makes privacy first-class.

On the same board, Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade is coming to scale shielded payments and improve quantum readiness, while states keep pushing the other way with cash caps and privacy-coin bans.

On the regulation front, the thing everyone was counting on did not happen. The CLARITY Act missed its symbolic July 4 signing, stuck in the Senate on cloture math, and Polymarket has trimmed its 2026 passage odds again.

The catalyst the whole market penciled in for this weekend slipped, which is a quiet disappointment nobody is pricing loudly because the bounce distracted from it.

Sparkasse adding crypto for millions of Germans through their local savings banks is still the adoption signal I cannot stop thinking about, the most normie on-ramp imaginable, landing in the same week Monad flipped Sui in TVL and Hyperliquid pulled $116M in bridge inflows in a day.

What are you watching this week?