코인톡

I survived the day with just 3 hours of sleep.

So here's a bit of stream of consciousness here.

The overall market is showing resilience, with small cap and NASDAQ outperformance forming a bullish trend that is most likely to continue climbing on a wall of worry.

ISM PMI crossed 50. Copper/gold ratio continues to improve and has bottomed 4 months ago. These are real signals of broadening economic activity and improving liquidity conditions.

The semiconductor sector and Japan are leading this rally, and despite inevitable corrections will come to reset sentiment, trend is still bullish and therefore the market will likely to continue to run up.

Selected sectors are being hit hard: software, China, and crypto. These crashes are happening on relatively low volume and are not happening in a broader market sell off, which to me means that liquidity is still rotating from one sector to another very slowly and is a sign of a healthy market.

It is particularly painful to hold these underperforming sectors while seeing the overall market and selected sectors doing so well. This is worse than having an overall market crash to most people because wealth is not an absolute number and people cannot help but to compare themselves to others even though it's completely meaningless.

Even though liquidity in the crypto sector currently is running dry, there hasn't been a FTX/Celcius/Voyager type bankruptcy because the liquidity conditions in the overall market are still doing well.

It's probably why some crypto-focused influencers are saying that sentiment isn't as bad as the last bottom and why there continues to be people optimistic about #Bitcoin, #Ethereum and the larger cap crypto. Some people still have money and are still interested in speculation.

With that said, I assure you that people on here talking about crypto is now a minority of overall market participants, and most people aren't bearish or bullish on the sector because they simply don't give a damn about it. People have been exiting the crypto space left and right. Miners have left. Most retail have been forced out in the October 2025 crash, and many have learned the lesson to not be in crypto and just stick with stocks. The sample size of sentiment that you get on here aren't a huge segment of the general population and thus probably isn't as good of a sentiment gauge as the last cycle's accumulation phase.

You now have gold, silver, China, crypto, and software stocks selling off all at once.

Gold and silver have had some generational run-up over the past 2 years with a ton of liquidity trapped in them.

China hasn't done anything for 1 year.
Crypto and software stocks haven't done anything for 2-4 years.

The macroeconomic environment is such that it allows selected speculation to thrive, while others wait.

Thus, it is my opinion that this is not yet a bubble, that we are nowhere near the top, and that the best 2 strategies to me is to identify and buy early bull trends on the dip, or be patient and build position on assets that are trying to form a base while nobody cares about them.

Even I don't really feel like talking about the assets that I buy anymore. It doesn't make me feel great buying them or talking about buying them. This means either I'm an idiot and my buys are going to zero, or that they are good buys because it don't make me feel good.

Those who remain diversified and allocate to a basket of 15-20 stocks in 4+ sectors, as well as those heavily allocated to the overall market, are doing well with my macro views and will likely continue to do well moving forward if they can handle the volatility.

Those who listened to my bullish call last year on Silver, I hope my charts helped you to get out over the last few months, as I think liquidity is rotating away from it now.

I still feel comfortable allocating a portion of my portfolio to crypto-related equities not because they've been doing well but to anticipate what I think will probably be coming in 2027-2028.

I remember adding to $PLTR at $6, $SOFI at $4, $AFRM at the teens, $HOOD at $12, $IREN at $5, $CIFR at $3, $SHOP at $25, $TQQQ at $20s, and many more that felt like terrible decisions at the time in 2022-2024.

I remember turning on my laser eyes in Nov 2022 when #Bitcoin was 16K, which was cliche in hindsight.

I need to learn to celebrate my wins better, but I probably won't.

I cannot guarantee anything about $COIN $CONL #Ethereum $DOGE $BMNR $BTCS $RIVN $QUBT $TIGR $BABA moving forward. I've been on #Ethereum 3-4 years ago and $COIN 1.5 years ago. They have been disappointing many, but all I know is that I am patient, open to be wrong, and will be around long enough to see how they play out over time.