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think $MU beats on ER makes a fresh new all time high & then thats the memory top for a couple months

mag7 has already been notably weak and down off the highs, memory & semis have been carrying the market

was wrong on SpaceX strength until first major unlocks which is another sign of retail buyer exhaustion in market imo, will cut this on sustained weakness below open price at $150

capex concerns become materially more important if open source models continue to compete w/ closed source at much lower cost as we've seen this narrative accelerate over past couple months & this has not become a mainstream view yet + need to research CXMT

concerns w/ rates & inflation are real, believe bessent's comments today convey their concern w fed not cutting rates, believe that warsh removed forward guidance so that they can respond to activity in the markets & not try to calm markets ahead of time which means its likely that they will reverse course once its apparent inflationary shocks from hormuz were temporary especially if we have market weakness at the same time, gives good window from now to end of july when next fed meeting is for markets to cool off as theyve been straight vertical since end of march

crypto has been the sad kid in the corner for past two years, but believe it is in great position now with a few tailwinds that also align with ones that would make the stock market weaker, if open source ai & decentralized inference becomes a popular narrative then solana is one of the best trades to take over the next 12 months that can benefit from startups building & tokenizing products around this narra, it is the only L1 performant & cheap enough to host various applications from all different market sectors, & has consistently proven its ability to fundamentally improve underlying infra while attracting talented builders, current concerns around monetary policy & token demand vs supply are being discussed fervently with simds 123/553/550 it is much harder to build a performant chain with retail interest than it is to change monetary policy around token, if the high capex costs US tech companies are spending turn out to not be as efficient then the money from ppl taking profits there will look elsewhere & crypto gains momentum fast off the bottom currently down ~80%, last cycle sol did well mostly as a memecoin chain and clipped previous all time highs of 2021, now there is focus on perps with jtx/phoenix/bulk, focus on tcgs & breakout success with cards, focus on privacy with arcium, & two dominant tokenization platforms with heavy incentives to support protocols that arent just memecoins with metadao & pumpfun, believe sentiment around onchain apps & tokenization is at peak bottom sentiment & that there are existing protocols onchain which will do very well once sentiment flips on crypto again, & we've seen this year with hype's performance that other L1s are not dependent on btc to do well, believe sol will be an outperformer and it will catch a lot off guard in early part of trend

for bitcoin saylor & microstrategy concerns are real but theyve shown they are willing to dilute mstr holders to continue buying btc & shore up cash to pay preferreds, long btc/mstr pair seems like a good trade, but bitcoin is at very important level with 2021 previous all time highs & 200W moving average, 60k holding will mstr breaking support would be good sign for long term bottom being in

hype has been weaker on LTFs since last week, lots of narra around its strength has been from tradfi eyes & think they are more valuation sensitive than crypto traders, revenues have been mostly flat even with hip3 success & may see more consolidation until those improve meaningfully into rerating higher

overall think pump today then selloff after into beginning of Q3, think you get another chance to bid 60k btc & $60 on solana and thats the bear market low, frontrunning ppl waiting for 40ks & 40s