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🚨 $ASST VS. $MSTR CALL OPTIONS: STACKING CONVEXITY ON TOP OF CONVEXITY 🚨

Over the past year I've been stacking Bitcoin mostly, some treasury company shares, and I loaded up on ASST call options heavily back in February.

Since then I've mostly been buying Bitcoin but lately with all of these depressed treasury company prices I've been looking at call options again to appease my inner degenerate.

I modeled January 2028 calls on both companies using the exact same Bitcoin scenario:

Bitcoin: $65,108 → $150,000
Return: +130.4%

I froze BTC holdings, cash, debt, preferred balances, and mNAV. No additional Bitcoin purchases. No mNAV expansion.

The only market driver is Bitcoin, while the model still accounts for the common-share dilution required to fund preferred dividends.

Under those normalized inputs, CEBE projects:

$MSTR: $94.26 → $267.69
Return: +184.0%

$ASST: $12.25 → $37.73
Return: +208.0%

ASST is the more structurally convex stock because its fixed senior claims are larger relative to its residual common equity.

Its starting CEBE elasticity is approximately 1.82× versus 1.52× for MSTR.

As Bitcoin rises, those fixed-dollar claims consume a smaller percentage of the Bitcoin reserve. The value remaining for common shareholders therefore grows faster than Bitcoin itself.

That produces:

Bitcoin: +130.4%
MSTR: +184.0%
ASST: +208.0%

But now we add a SECOND layer of convexity, which are call options for January of 2028.

I selected strikes approximately 1.8× above today’s stock prices:

MSTR January 2028 $170 call
Premium: $23.90
Breakeven: $193.90

ASST January 2028 $22 call
Premium: $4.35
Breakeven: $26.35

Important distinction is that a strike 1.8× above spot does not mean the trade becomes profitable after a 1.8× move.

If the stock finishes exactly at the strike, the call expires worthless.

The stock must exceed the strike PLUS the premium before the option makes money at expiration.

Under the CEBE projections:

MSTR finishes at $267.69.
The $170 call has $97.69 of intrinsic value.

Cost: $2,390 per contract
Expiration value: $9,768.80
Profit: $7,378.80
Return: +308.7%

That call beats:

Bitcoin by 178.3 percentage points
MSTR stock by 124.7 percentage points

Now ASST:

ASST finishes at $37.73.
The $22 call has $15.73 of intrinsic value.

Cost: $435 per contract
Expiration value: $1,572.68
Profit: $1,137.68
Return: +261.5%

That call beats:

Bitcoin by 131.1 percentage points
ASST stock by 53.6 percentage points

Normalize everything to $1,000 invested:

Bitcoin → $2,304
MSTR stock → $2,840
ASST stock → $3,080
ASST calls → $3,615
MSTR calls → $4,087

Here is the fascinating part:

ASST is the more convex COMPANY.

But MSTR offers the more convex CALL at these prices.

Why?

Because the option market is already charging heavily for ASST’s volatility.

The ASST premium equals 35.5% of the stock price.

The MSTR premium equals only 25.4% of the stock price.

ASST wins the CEBE balance-sheet convexity contest.

MSTR wins the option-pricing contest.

You are stacking two separate machines:

Bitcoin appreciation expands residual common equity through CEBE.

The call option then concentrates that stock appreciation above a fixed strike.

Bitcoin → CEBE equity convexity → option payoff convexity.

This is a machine built on top of a machine... and the price you pay for the second machine determines whether you actually capture the amplification.

You are accepting counterparty risk and then accepting timing risk as well for Bitcoin to move. You can underwrite your own assumptions, personally I think a move to $150k Bitcoin is possible... and assuming no mNAV expansion or future Bitcoin purchases until then is pretty bearish.

Bitcoin is savings. Equities are investing.

Call options are degenerate.

But they can be fun if you enter at the right time. This is not financial advice, this is financial entertainment. Personally I am not buying these options for January 2028... I just selected these for comparison because ASST doesn't have December 2028 options yet.

I own ASST $15's and $20's for Jan. 2028 and MSTR $275's for Dec. 2028.