코인톡

DSMMA Morning Brief
07/23/2026

------------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Avoid being short while earnings remain strong, but do not chase broad beta. Pullbacks remain buyable until we see an actual turn in earnings and growth.

Earnings continue to be outstanding. GOOGL reported amazing numbers, NOW smashed it, and TXN did well. TSLA and IBM were the main outliers, but neither report changes the broader earnings picture. Capex worries remain the main concern, but if this earnings season continues on the same path, those fears will be looked past and equities should push higher into year-end.

Bonds continue to trade like trash from a short-term perspective, but the long-term value is clear. We are buying long-duration TIPS and slowly adding longer-duration bonds as real yields approach 3%. This is an investment based on value, not a short-term timing trade.

Oil is reaching levels that could become a real economic drag, but prices need to hold above $87 for 20-30 days before that matters across risk assets. Gold is pulling back after a technical breakout and can be bought near current levels with stops below the recent swing low.

BTC still has momentum toward 70k / the 200 SMA, but the trade now needs to be protected. Move stops to breakeven and scale out into that level.

------------------------------------

MACRO

Earnings continue to be outstanding, and the only real issue appears to be capex worries. The companies themselves have the money and see little reason to fear, but Wall Street remains nervous about the numbers. In the long run, equities care about earnings, and if we have another stellar earnings season, those worries will be looked past.

When I was younger, this used to drive me nuts. I thought equities should care more about inflation risk, economic developments, and world events. The longer I have been in markets, the more I understand the benefit of the one-directional view. Equities move on earnings, and if this season remains strong, I would avoid being short and expect a push higher into year-end.

------------------------------------

EQUITIES

GOOGL released amazing earnings, but as usual, the different camps are trying to find a reason to support their bias. Any report can say whatever you want if you twist the data enough, but overall, we view it as a very positive report. TXN did well, and NOW smashed it. The only real outliers were TSLA and IBM. We already knew IBM dropped the ball, and the report only proved that management is lacking. The preannouncement was unnecessary and caused more damage than the report itself would have. TSLA is built on hopes and dreams, and no one’s mind was changed by last night’s report, either bullish or bearish.

It is hard to want to find anything bullish in this earnings season when it feels like stocks have rallied forever. However, if earnings continue on this path, there is little reason to expect the market to turn bearish or the cycle to end. This makes pullbacks buyable until we see an actual turn in earnings and growth, not just fear pf the capex cycle.

------------------------------------

BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds are being thrown away, and we are starting to invest in long-duration TIPS and longer-duration bonds. I always tell anyone who will listen that 3% real is equity-like returns over the long run, and if the market gives it to you, buy with both hands.

This is not a timing philosophy. If I bought 3% real and yields moved to 3.5%, I would not be upset that my bonds fell in price. I would start liquidating other assets and buying more. At 4%, I would sell my house, my cars, and whatever else I could, invest it all, and laugh. It is value, not market timing.

From a timing perspective, bonds as a whole continue to trade like trash. Besides downside extension, there are no visible signs of the market turning, which makes short-term trading difficult. There is value here, but that does not mean you will get paid immediately after buying, especially through futures or short-dated options. As an investment, I believe you should be buying TIPS and slowly adding longer-duration bonds to the mix. In no way do I think it is a lock that buying ZB / TLT today will outperform SPX through the end of the year. That is a different thing entirely.

------------------------------------

COMMODITIES

Oil is spiking and reaching more dangerous levels for the economy as a whole. This will affect inflation data, though which report it makes its way into is harder to time than it should be. If oil stays above $87, it will become a general drag on consumers and companies. It is not good for anyone, including the oil companies themselves, as higher prices eventually cause demand destruction. Add all of that together and it is very negative, but prices need to hold at these levels rather than simply spike into them. You can start the clock today, and if oil remains here 20-30 days from now, it will be negative for most risk assets.

Gold responded well yesterday but is being sold this morning with the oil spike. This is the type of pullback that typically follows a technical breakout. You can buy near current levels and set stops below the recent swing low. The risk/reward is decent, but if we get a few daily closes below that swing low, another leg lower becomes probable.

------------------------------------

CRYPTO (BTC)

BTC has the momentum to continue higher, but it needs a general risk-on tone for that move to hold. Time is not on the side of BTC bulls. While we suggested a short-term long earlier, I would now move stops up to breakeven and scale out of the position into 70k / the 200 SMA.

--------------------------------

Follow @PiQSuite for best News Source on the internet!

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

--------------------------------

== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

--------------------------------

Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz