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Daily Market Report #799

It is Saturday. We are 1 report away from #800, which is a little crazy to think about.

I am still recovering from that bus journey, but I made it, and I am here.

Tonight is the 3rd-place match between France and England.

There is also something real on the line for France. If they win, they will become the first team to reach the final at 3 consecutive World Cups and collect all 3 medals: gold, silver, and now bronze.

My meeting yesterday went well more on that a bit later.

The AI selloff intensified and dragged US stocks lower, with the Nasdaq 100 on track for its worst July in 22 years.

In South Korea, 1.2 million retail traders were hit with margin calls this week, a genuine retail wipeout caused by the AI unwind.

Oil climbed above $80 to $81.75 after the US seized an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz while the strikes continued.

Oil is now rising exactly as everyone feared, and if it remains at these levels, the next inflation print becomes more difficult.

Gold is back above $4,000. Silver is at $56.01.

The 10-year yield is at 4.57%.

Fed voter Lorie Logan is also openly calling for modestly higher rates, so the hawkish side is not going anywhere.

Fear & Greed is at 25, still stuck in extreme fear even though we are only a few percentage points below the recent highs.

Scott Melker is buying Bitcoin aggressively at these levels and is making the same argument I keep coming back to: extreme fear is the opportunity, not the warning.

He also believes the market could move sideways for 6 to 9 months before it really matters.

Bitcoin is at $63,918, up 0.9% and holding above $63K.

JPMorgan says Bitcoin is showing encouraging signs, and the options market appears to agree.

The put/call ratio fell to a 6-month low, suggesting that traders are positioning more bullishly.

Bitcoin also saw $925M in net buying as ETF inflows continued.

However, the CLARITY Act took a real hit.

It still lacks support from Senate Democrats, and its chances of passing in 2026 have fallen to 35%.

Citadel invested $400M in Cryptodotcom at a $20B valuation, while Morgan Stanley opened crypto trading to its clients.

Morgan Stanley allowing its clients to trade crypto represents a real door opening, regardless of what token prices do.

Ethereum is at $1,843, basically where it was yesterday and still below the $1,924 high it reached on Wednesday.

It is approaching a real technical event after the ETH/BTC ratio broke above a 301-day trendline.

A whale also accumulated 89,396 ETH worth $165M over 3 days, while Ethereum reserves on exchanges continue to decline.

The accumulation has been relentless throughout the entire move, and that is why Ethereum led this rally.

Hyperliquid continues to bleed.

It is now below $60 at $59.28, while a16z sold $6.5M worth of the token.

After leading my universe for weeks, it has given back a significant part of that run.

One thing is still worth noting: T. Rowe Price launched a crypto ETF with heavy Hyperliquid exposure.

The institutional product side continues to develop even while the token falls.

It is the same split we always see with Hyperliquid: a weak token but an in-demand venue.

Zcash is steady at $544, up slightly and holding onto its huge run after spending a month as the best-performing asset I own.

Monero is at $330, acting as the anchor.

Bittensor is at $194.

Chainlink is at $8.25.

Arbitrum is at $0.0899, trading in the green and holding up after its unlock passed cleanly.

Starknet is at $0.0276, down 2.7% and the weakest of the group, with its own unlock now behind it.

Solana is at $75.06, still stuck near its lows and remaining the major that never truly joined the recovery.

Visa launched a stablecoin platform for merchants.

Visa putting stablecoin rails in front of its entire merchant network could be huge for real-world payments.

USDT trading in Venezuela now rivals the country’s oil exports, which tells you everything about stablecoins as an escape into dollars within a broken economy.

That is the real use case, and it has nothing to do with speculation.

Morpho launched fixed-rate lending on Base, while Maple made its buybacks rules-based, showing how DeFi infrastructure continues to mature.

On the cultural side, DeGods is launching an NFT marketplace, while Stacks is introducing its first Bitcoin protocol bond.

These are small signs of life in corners of the market that were left for dead.

I keep thinking about Vlad’s follow-up.

After saying Robinhood Chain is meant for real-world assets, he now says there is no need to choose between memes and RWAs.

Why not have both?

Every chain hates admitting it, but the memes pay for the rails.

I do not love it, but pretending otherwise is how you end up like Base, chasing the wrong strategy for a year.

The selloff remains the main story.

Semiconductor stocks are in a correction, Micron is down 30% from its peak, and hyperscalers have doubled their debt over the last 5 years to fund the AI push.

That debt-fuelled expansion is exactly the fragility everyone from Buffett to the BIS has been warning about.

The story that matters most for us is that Meta is reportedly discussing a potential $10B compute-leasing agreement with Anthropic, just as Anthropic considers an October IPO.

China’s Kimi K3 also overtook several US models, showing that neither the open-source movement nor China’s efforts to catch up are slowing down.

What are you watching?