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DSMMA Morning Brief
07/17/2026

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EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Selective risk, but no reason to chase broad beta while rotation out of memory names continues.

Industrial production and UofM will not matter much today. The market remains in summer trade, and the political noise from last night should be ignored.

NFLX and IBM look more like company-specific failures than economic warnings. Memory names and Korea remain the main source of pressure, but chip companies are still posting record profits. Until those comps actually miss, profit-taking and rotation are more likely to create openings in other tech names than a broad market breakdown. We still do not believe this is the time to buy broad index beta.

Bonds are finding support above the short-term momentum levels. Cooler inflation data should help build a short-term bottom, but rallies will still run into sellers and a larger turn in duration will take time.

Oil near $80 despite a full return to war confirms how badly supply fears were overstated. I would not be short into the weekend escalation risk. Gold remains untradeable despite long-term value under 4k.

BTC remains a trade above 61k for a possible push into the low 70s, but the bear market remains intact.

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MACRO

Industrial production and UofM data come out today, but the market will not care much about either. Overall we are still in the heart of summer, many of my friends are on vacation as we speak. Trump presser last night was about the typical election drama that has been going on for the last 6 years, and besides polarizing political junkies it means very little to markets as whole and should be ignored.

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EQUITIES

NFLX reported last night, and to no one’s surprise who is actually a subscriber, the numbers and forward projections were not great. Much like IBM, I believe this is more of a company issue than an economic one. We posted the levels where it is worth owning on X and Discord, so check those posts if you want to try and catch the knife.

Overall, equities are moving in line with the memory names. Korea has been a leading factor, as many people are getting margin calls and the euphoric rise of the ROW rotation only added fuel to that market. I do not believe in the old saying that you buy chip stocks at high PEs and sell them when the PE is low, but it comes from a basic principle that does hold up.

Chip stocks are somewhat cyclical. When earnings are at their highest and demand is at an extreme, buyers eventually own what they need for the upcoming cycle and go offline in the near term. That causes comps to suffer, stock prices to fall alongside weaker earnings, and PEs to rise again, restarting the cycle we just described.

However... Timing that is difficult and markets rarely turn until those comps actually miss. For now, chip companies are still posting record profits. Profit-taking and rotation out of winners are not enough to crash them longer term without the actual earnings misses. While I do not believe this is the time to buy broad index beta, I do believe the rotation will give us openings in other tech names that are sold along side the memory names to take advantage of.

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BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds are finding support and starting to trade back above the short-term momentum flip levels. I do not expect bond prices to take off, and rallies will still run into sellers, but longer term this is a good place to be looking. The idea that bonds do not diversify portfolios is not based in reality, and real rates are historically high for modern markets.

As we continue to say, bonds trend far more than equities, and turning the bond market takes time. The cooler inflation prints are more likely to help build a short-term bottom than create any kind of extended rally in duration.

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COMMODITIES

Oil is hovering near $80 with a full-blown war back in the picture. This shows how badly supply expectations were miscalculated around the closing of the Strait. It is not good by any means, but the doomers screaming about $200 oil were clearly misguided. This weekend could bring a major escalation as the US looks to attack infrastructure and Iran, in turn, targets its Middle East neighbors. I would not want to be short oil into the weekend. Even if the trade is ultimately right, it is not worth the heart attack risk.

Gold is one of the worst-performing assets I have tracked in a long time. It finds sellers into every rally, and the only bullish thing anyone can come up with is that it is so bad, at some point it has to be good.

Gold was in a full euphoric blow-off top, and while I thought a lot of that froth had been worked off, it appears I could be early to that call. I would avoid gold as a trade. As an investment, under 4k is likely a good long-term level, but with how price is acting, a puke down to 3500 would not surprise me in the least.

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CRYPTO (BTC)

There is no good reason to be an investor at these levels. For a trade, as long as BTC can hold above 61k, there is a chance of a push into the low 70s. Besides that, the bear market continues, and we believe BTC goes lower before it is over.

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

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== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

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Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz