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Daily Market Report #778

It is Saturday. Last day of the World Cup group stage, and what a group stage it has been. Upsets everywhere, the favorites stumbling, the underdogs swinging. I have been glued to it, making my picks along the way, and the knockouts are going to be something.

The whole reason Bitcoin exists is being forgotten. People are buying Bitcoin with leverage every single day. Saylor is doing it at corporate scale, retail is doing it on Hyperliquid at 25x, and then we all sit around wondering why the price keeps cascading lower. We are watching forced sellers liquidate forced sellers.

Bitcoin was never supposed to be about putting your Bitcoin to work or levering it up to get rich faster. The entire point, the thing that came out of 2008, was that the banks blew themselves up with leverage and reckless debt. And the only lesson a huge chunk of this industry took from that was: great, let us rebuild the exact same fragile leverage machine, just on Bitcoin this time.

I feel for the people getting wiped out. They were overconfident, they wanted it too fast, and the market took it. But it was always simple for me. Buy every month, hold, and in 10 years, $100 a month is a real position. A savings plan. That is it. If you cannot put aside $100 a month into Bitcoin or anything else, and you are instead farming comments on X for 15 cents, I genuinely cannot help you. That is not investing. That is a slow way of asking the market to take what little you have.

South Korea’s stock market got halted, limit down 8%, and Asian shares plunged across the region. The chip-driven volatility that started with the SpaceX rout and reversed on Micron is now whipping Asia violently. Gold $4,050, trying to stabilize. The Iran war, is over, and oil under $70 should be a gift to risk assets, but the Fed and the AI rotation are still swallowing everything.

Bitcoin $60,144, up 0.6%. Dominance 55.7%. BTC slipped to the 17th-most valuable asset, closing in on falling out of the top 20. The $11B options expiry clears today. And the Saylor story took a serious turn: Rosen Law opened a probe into Strategy, STRC fell to $76, and MSTR hit $85, now down 83% from its peak.

Ethereum $1,577, up 1.9%. The 8-hour funding turned negative, and shorts are building, which is often where bounces start. A stablecoin is now bigger than Ethereum on that measure. BitMine joined the Russell 1000 and staked 4.88M ETH. SharpLink bought another 5,000.

Solana $71.86, up 5.8%, and it is not close on relative strength. SOL TVL inflows are accelerating while everything else bled. A South Korean digital bank with 15 million users adopted Solana stablecoins for overseas transfers, real consumer-scale adoption. Ansem says SOL bottomed near $60 and calls for a rally to $600 this cycle.

XRP $1.06, up 3.2%. Bouncing off the $1 scare. The RLUSD-bypassing-XRP problem I flagged yesterday is still the real structural drag, but the token caught a bid with the weekend relief.

Hyperliquid $63.94, up 2%. Multicoin Capital put out a call for HYPE to reach $319 by 2028 on $8B in projected earnings. Whether you believe the number or not, a major fund publishing an $8B earnings thesis on a perp DEX tells you how seriously the venue is now taken.

Privacy held its anchor role again. Monero $319, up 2.2%, green through the whole mess as always. Zcash $413. The privacy sector keeps being the calmest corner of my universe in a panic, which is the entire uncorrelated-hedge thesis doing its job.

The MiCA conclusion is now official and dated. Binance halts crypto services in 6 EU countries starting July 1, telling users in Poland, Italy, Spain, France, and more to withdraw. CZ called it sad. The biggest exchange on earth, locked out of Europe, while Coinbase, Bitpanda, and SwissBorg wave their licenses to scoop up the users.

The L2 shakeout is real and worth naming. Sophon shut down its chain entirely and migrated to Base, saving $3M a year after dwindling to 100-200 daily users and $30 in daily fees.

Over 20 funded projects are now winding down in a market reset that favors apps over infrastructure. The L2 gold rush is ending, and the chains with no users are turning off the lights. This is healthy, brutal, and overdue.

The casino and the wreckage. A Polymarket partner got breached for $3M in pUSD from fewer than 15 users, more prediction-market security rot after the fake-influencer scandal. Crypto VC funding hit a 6-year low, the money is drying up at the seed level.

What are you watching as the group stage wraps and the knockouts begin?