코인톡

Here's a picture of how I mentally view the situation.
5 trades, different parties, all short-side biased in the immediate term.

#1 Console trade is just obvious. Short the stock when gaming is out of favor. Long the stock when gaming is coming into favor and FCF is expected to improve. GameStop is essentially leveraged exposure to gaming hardware because the trade in model is so active every release cycle. Just think of GME to Gaming as MSTR to BTC. We are deep into the current cycle now but rapidly approaching the next. I know there are rumors it will be delayed but I am not so sure. Sony and Xbox likely want to launch the next consoles on time. Maybe chip prices will come down. They will probably be expensive, though, and that means trade-ins. GameStop does really well on refurbished tech as we keep hearing. It is one of their best categories. So right now, maximum downside pressure from this force, but could begin moving up between this August and next. More gaming cycle news will mean more up pressure.

#2 Bankruptcy trade is obvious. We tend to bottom alongside AMC and KOSS to the day. Others have not survived this basket while some from the 2021 squeeze have escaped. I believe this to be the strongest force acting on the stock still and why we trade down in such a structured way (dorito of doom) with such regular cadence (yellow swap especially, expired this week probably). Whoever is on the other side of this particular trade is happy to have allies but unhappy to still be involved. I believe they bought the second ATM in 2024 and desperately need access to massive liquidity in any way they can get it. As longs, we need this trader to exit to see GME finally move up long term. I believe the only way that can happen is for them to get access to about 700m to 1 billion shares (eBay deal works, sort of).

#3 BTC trade I feel is also obvious. We tracked BTC strongly once the rumors began but even prior. Now we bottom out with BTC and the other treasury companies. Hopefully crypto winter ends October 2026 like everybody expects. This could be a very powerful rally force for 3 years after since our treasury position is actually rather substantial.

#4 For people that don't understand what happen here, the company monetized our volatility. They sold our high IV to options traders for 4.4billion at 0% coupon for 5 and 7 years. This hurt my trade immensely because options prices collapsed. But look at our balance sheet. Incredible. Leveraged our 4.5b cash to earn essentially double interest. Can simply dilute the bonds off at $29 strike in the years to come and all those diluted shares just go to closing shorts that were used to delta hedge. So we have already eaten the dilutive effect of the bonds. Going forward they just keep us pinned in a low IV state and compete with the other short trades. They make my trade harder in some ways but easier in others but make our EPS crazy. Good job RC. Just have to deal with the pain awhile longer.

#5 eBay deal arbitrage. These guys slammed in here thinking RC doesn't have a chance of making this deal go through. I think they might have been setup, personally. Because let's just throw our wishful thinking caps on for a second and imagine there are some structural or market forces at work here that could produce a strong run on the stock within the next 12 months (ahem, see #1 and #2 and #3), and the stock spikes over the bonds strike (#4) which we've seen in May 2025 can have interesting effects. How much more likely does the eBay deal get as the stock rises over $30? Much greater. So I don't know if the modeling done by this group is taking all this into account but if it isn't and the stock moves very fast, faster than they can control, they might find themselves covering. And I do believe GME rips the hardest and highest when shorts panic cover. So these guys might end up being some kind of patsy in the near term and RC might just get his baby and they might be left wondering how they misread the situation so badly.

Anyway, I wanted to make a shorter more easy to digest post about what I believe is going on here structurally. I likely failed. But that's my big picture. LOTS of forces pushing on the stock extraordinarily hard right now. But each has a very logical reason for doing so. They are all date and price sensitive. But they all also have reasons and dates to reverse.

So I remain extremely optimistic.

For Monday, sure. Forward guidance is great. More information about the eBay deal is coming. And volatility is almost certain.

For later next week, also. XRT and post yellow swap settlement is always fun. But Bond De-Legending should happen also. And we can't forget the shareholders meeting the following week, of course.

But for after August, especially. Because earnings should be memorable. Another gift to shareholders seems due. Share buyback news could happen. And console hype is starting in earnest.

But for after October perhaps the most, because crypto bleeds until it doesn't. And while the floor does last awhile, the rise is always something of an event and I am curious first how far BTC will compress and then how far it will expand. And of course, whether GameStop will add at the bottom or how much we will benefit from the rise.

So it won't be a straight line and I feel there is a lot going on and folks might be rather fatigued, but the company is a real company. I would say it is even a strong company. Even if it has narratives around it. Perhaps because of the narratives, to be honest.

Because behind all of those short trades there's a quiet long trade, institutions, building their stake. Watching RC cook, liking the balance sheet, looking forward rather than looking in the rearview mirrors still. And I think that trade will be the narrative that everybody remembers in the long term. The one that changes everything.

I've always said that, though. Once the institutions go long again, this thing will have to rise.

Again, sorry for the very long posts, but it is a very compelling story. I don't like giving advice or hyping. And perhaps this isn't a hype post because it implies more lows to come, more volatility, more ups and downs. But someday I feel very strongly this stock will have its day. And I think that day is actually not that far away.

Big thanks to the GameStop leadership for continuing to work so hard. The transformation that's already happened since 2021 and when I wrote my letter in 2023 and when RCEO took over in September 2023 is incredible. Thank you for listening and for believing and for growing the company value into the share price household probably forced. Because of that, institutions, insiders, and household all now buy at the same price.

And that is a beautiful thing!