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This is 1,000+ by the end of 2027. Easily. I'll show you why below, combined with catalysts that get it there. This is my thesis. I’ll get louder as the price goes down should the thesis remain intact. I am not a trader. I buy companies I believe will win long term.

Metaplanet at 260 yen is trading at ~0.86 times the value of the Bitcoin sitting on its own balance sheet, and somehow the loudest people in my replies have decided this is the moment to declare the whole thing dead. I think that is almost perfectly backwards, so let me lay out the actual trade, because I am tired of watching misinformed poors fighting about a candlestick or owners who hold 3350 but have no idea wtf is going on.

You have to understand what you are buying before the price makes any sense. This is not a company in the way a bank or a software firm is a company. It is a claim on 40,177 Bitcoin wrapped inside an equity, and the price of that equity is the product of two things and genuinely nothing else. One is the dollar value of the Bitcoin it holds. The other is the multiple the market is willing to pay on top of those coins, the number everyone now throws around as mNAV. While that multiple sits above one, the company can sell shares for more than the coins behind them are worth, turn the cash into more Bitcoin, and grow the amount of Bitcoin standing behind every single share. That is the flywheel, and it is the only reason any of these treasury names ever commanded a premium in the first place. The moment the multiple drops under one, that flywheel does not gently decelerate, it stops dead, because issuing stock below the value of your own coins robs every holder you already have. Metaplanet is under one right now. The engine is off. That, and not the Siiibo acquisition everyone got briefly excited about (Justified), is the entire reason the stock has gone nowhere.

So Siiibo barely moved it, and that was the correct response, because a $13m deal adds no Bitcoin and no earnings this quarter, and the market does not pay you today for a 2027 option in the middle of a Bitcoin drawdown. What Siiibo actually does is more important than a one day pop, and it is the reason I am still holding rather than trading the headline. The problem this company had was circular and genuinely hard. It cannot buy aggressively until the stock re-rates above one, and the stock will not re-rate until the market believes the buying continues. You cannot think your way out of that loop with a press release. You break it by building a second way to raise money that works even while the common stock trades at a discount, and that is precisely what a licensed securities arm distributing Bitcoin-linked bonds and preferred shares into Japanese households gives them. They went and bought the one piece of plumbing that keeps the accumulation alive through a sub-NAV winter. The market has not priced that because the market prices it when the plumbing turns on, not when it is announced. (It's the reason why NAKA is so cooked, because David is useless who has no plausible way to re-rate their shitty company)

Which is why the price cannot lead here, it has to follow, and the things it follows are dated. The reclassification of crypto into Japan's securities law clears the upper house in the second half of this year and is widely expected to pass. Siiibo closes on the thirteenth of July. The November quarter delivers the eighth consecutive period of operating track record, which is the exact box the Tokyo exchange said was missing when it held up the preferred share listings in the spring. And then the preferreds re-file and list across the fourth quarter into the first quarter of next year, which is the actual unlock, because preferred capital lets them keep stacking Bitcoin without first needing the common to trade at a premium. That is the sequence that flips the engine back on, and once it is on, the multiple has a reason to expand again.

Now here is a gift, because I’ll hand you the inputs so you can take them apart instead of taking my word for anything. Price equals holdings times Bitcoin price times the multiple, divided by shares, converted at roughly 150 yen to the dollar. I am assuming diluted share count drifts toward 1.7 billion by the end of this year and around 2.4 billion by the end of next, and I am assuming the bulk of new coins get funded by issuing above NAV.

End of 2026, with the engine off through summer and debt plus the credit line carrying them to roughly 60,000 coins. If Bitcoin sits flat around 63k and the multiple stays compressed near 0.9, you are looking at about 300 yen, basically here. If Bitcoin recovers to 85k as the law passes and the multiple re-rates to 1.2, that is roughly 540 yen. If Bitcoin runs to 110k and the multiple gets back to 1.4 on the funding restart, you are talking about 820 yen.

End of 2027, with the preferred and securities rails funding the back half of the 555 plan toward 165,000 coins. Bitcoin at 85k on a 1.2 multiple gets you around 1,050 yen. Bitcoin at 110k on a 1.3 multiple gets you near 1,470. And if Bitcoin reaches 150k on a 1.3 multiple, we land close to 2,000 yen, which is back at the old highs while the company holds four times the Bitcoin it did then.

So at 260 yen the asymmetry is the most lopsided I have seen it. The downside is genuinely cushioned, because below 1.0 the dilution machine is switched off and management has already told the market the buyback only gets more accretive the cheaper this trades, which puts a mechanical floor under the thing that simply was not there during prior drawdowns. The upside is a three to seven times move over a couple of years, and it does not even require heroic Bitcoin assumptions, it requires Bitcoin to behave roughly as it always has and the funding engine to come back online on a schedule that is already written down. I am not predicting the chart turns in June, and anyone who tells you they know the week it bottoms is guessing. What I am telling you is that the re-rate is downstream of the funding fix, the funding fix is dated to the fourth quarter and the first quarter, and the stock at 260 is pricing in a world where none of it happens. I do not think that world is the one we are in.