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Fundamentally, regardless of your macro view, if your goal is to make money shorting crypto, you need to understand one thing:

The best shorts rarely appear when everyone is bearish.

They appear when almost everyone is bullish. That's the truth

Rule #1:

Every day, ask yourself one question:

"Is the crowd overwhelmingly bullish right now?"

If the answer is no, be very careful with shorts.

If the answer is yes, that's when the opportunity starts becoming interesting.

Markets are driven by positioning and psychology.

Don't focus on what we think, don't care about what we say.

Focus on this.

The crowd is usually most vulnerable when conviction is highest.

Now for Rule #2.

This is the only rule that consistently overrides almost everything else in our process.

Watch the BTC 4H RSI.

Nothing fancy.

Just the 4H RSI.

When BTC's 4H RSI reaches the upper extreme of its range, that's when we begin looking aggressively for macro short setups. 50% of available portfolio goes 2x short.

Historically, those conditions have produced some of the highest-probability short opportunities we've seen.

It's one of the tools that helped us identify many major tops this year on every single crypto asset, but also on the SP500, alongside several proprietary indicators but analysis is mostly RSI based. Then RSI Div analysis also helps.

But the key lesson is patience.

If you're new to crypto, don't force trades.

Wait.

Sometimes the setup takes weeks.

Sometimes it takes months.

But when the market becomes euphoric and the 4H RSI reaches extreme territory, that's when your attention should be highest. When 4H RSI reaches the top of the range.

When the setup isn't there, don't short.

4H RSI not at the top of the range? Don't macro short.

Yes, you'll miss some opportunities.

You'll also avoid countless unnecessary losses.

Most traders lose money because they feel the need to be constantly involved. And we are also guilty of this at times.

But our risk management is superior to 99% of CT accounts.

The highest-paying trades are often the ones you wait months for. Like SP500, now we drinking tea.

If could only keep one indicator, it would be RSI. 4H RSI.

Not because it's perfect.

But because it's one of the few indicators that consistently captures what matters most:

Positioning, momentum, and crowd psychology.

We won't pin this message, we won't highlight it.

Because MM won't be happy and some funds may start using this against us.

But that's how we shorted every major top in crypto in 2025 and 2026, but also Gold 🔝 and the S&P500 🔝 pretty much.

Anything else is noise and emotions.

We'll delete this tweet in 6 hours.

And we probably won't share this framework again.

Not because it's some secret formula, but because markets only work when participants have different views, different time horizons, and different positioning.

If everyone thought the same way and traded the same setup, there would be no edge left. And no money to be made in trading for us.

The opportunity exists precisely because most people either don't see it, don't believe it, or don't have the patience to execute it.

Every single short that we opened over the last 10 months while 4H RSI was in that zone, are still open. and we will close our shorts at 41k

BTC 124k
BTC 98k
BTC 82.2k
ETH 4.7k avg
ZEC 600 avg
GOLD 4,800 avg
SP500 7,615 avg
TAO 700
TAO 375
TAO 270
RAVE 25
SOL 250
SOL 87
And others...

Everything is already documented in our Highlights.
There are 200+ highlighted tweets, so it won't take five minutes to digest, but every major view, framework, and market call is there.

The information is available. The rest is research.

You guys are early, you guys know our mindset. We can have emotions, like everyone else. But any other trade that we take outside of this framework, is risky and most of the time, unnecessary. We rarely commit more than 1% of portfolio capital to any single trade unless the framework is fully aligned and confirmed.

After today, we won't see BTC above 65k in 2026, this now belongs to the past.

We will close all our shorts at 41k, and focus on Q3

Q3 we will need to apply a new framework, to catch some longs

Stay tuned