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Some thoughts on the market and where we are heading from here:

On AI / macro. Lately I've been getting some tingling feelings. I've been very careful to be calling tops in anything AI adjacent, because I think standing infront of secular mega-themes is -EV for any serious investor. However, Koreans buying lambos, Google tapping capital markets, SPCX secretaries becoming millionaires, and token-spending exhaustion. These are all red flags for me that are coinciding with what looks to be distribution / topping patterns in big tech like $NVDA, $META, $GOOG, $ORCL. On top of this, the risk appetite for adjacent AI "bottlenecks" seems to be reaching a crescendo, bordering desperate at this point, with valuations in pre-revenue names like $SIVE becoming astronomical. These could be isolated stories of course, but it feels eerily similar to how BTC bullmarkets in 2018/2022 where followed by a run in DeFi majors/ Ethereum, finally ending with a shitcoin blow-off top. It seems NVIDIA, SK Hynix and Sivers could be decent representatives for each of these stages of market-risk-appetite.

So is the $SPCX IPO a top indicator or is this just a temporary market pause? Well, given the instinct for many to call SPCX the top, i'm inclined to say it won't be that easy. I don't see any dark clouds on the macro horizon at the moment. We're undoubtedly in a fiscal regime where noone can afford to meaningfully take the foot of the gas pedal. Market seems to largely ignoring the middle east for now, but China seems to be accelerating it's protective policies significantly in the last two months which could be a sign of calling home the children before the storm. I don't know for sure, but the velocity of the Korean bounce tonight gives me more of a bear market rally vibe than that of a market rally resumption. That feeling could be wrong though, and more likely is probably that we trend sideways into the slower summer months, with SPCX hedging / risk off into distribution.

Where I see opportunity right now:

Life science / bio-AI. Post-Covid "cyclical" trough seems to be over. The sector is slowly moving from sideways accumulation into a potential new bullmarket. Why? Sometimes calling a cyclical bottom is enough, but AI is undoubtedly a secular change for the industry that might finally be sniffed out by the market. Anthropic and OpenAI's most recent advancements seems to have been lost in the noise of Mythos cybersecurity and tokenomics fears. So what does an AI-bio run-up ultimately look like and who benefits? I'm tempted to call the more speculative AI-names like $ABCL but as a mere novice in this field I think the highest R/R play for now is simply through picks and shovels like $TMO, $SRT, $DHR.

Crypto. I think we've seen short term capitulation on Mythos fears and Saylor selling. DeFi hacks (or fear of) have historically been amazing buying opportunities. Most of the crypto teams I know are adopting AI in a way where it actually improves security in their protocols faster than it's opening them for more risk. Short-term quantum risk is way exaggerated, covid distributions/vesting is mostly over, Clarity act is just around the corner but seems priced at zero. Note that it's important to separate $MSTR and $BTC from $HYPE and the rest of the market, and as long as Saylor hasn't blown up I'm skeptical that BTC can surpass $200K. Beyond btc, underlying fundamentals are improving, not just perps but stablecoins and crypto banking. I think most alpha is found looking for real revenue projects beyond Hyperliquid. I like EtherFi for example, which is one of the strongest crypto products out there, absolutely crushing it right now with all activity surging higher, and trading at just a few times yearly fees.

Oil and gas. I think this is looking more and more asymmetric for everyday that the market shrugs off middle eastern disruption, and it's clear that Trump is way out of his skis atm while the market is looking the other way. I think the story of oil is a story about China, but I also think Russian aggression towards Romania is a real but underpriced risk towards future European gas supply, and because of that I like the European North Sea names in particular the Norwegian names $VAR $EQNR $AKERBP

Just my personal opinions btw. DYOR.