비트코인 도미넌스와 스테이블코인 도미넌스 움직임 분석

130

06-12

USDT.D, USDC.D, BTC.D 지표랑 커스텀 인디케이터 보면 2022년 고점 아직 못 넘었음. 이게 앞으로 천천히 도달할 목표임. USDT 도미넌스랑 USDC 도미넌스 둘 다 스퀴즈 여지 있다는 뜻임. 비트코인 도미넌스 보면 예전부터 표시해둔 구간 있는데 ‘멍청이들 자산 뺏는 구간’이라 부름. 비트코인 12만 달러 가치 있다고 봄. 만약 비트코인 더 떨어지면 알트코인들 엄청 싸짐. 예를 들어 ARB 2달러에서 20센트까지 떨어졌으면 거기서도 99% 더 떨어져야 바닥 찍는 거임. 지난 6개월간 나온 얘기들 다 어느 정도 맞아떨어짐. 커스텀 인디케이터(DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT) 보면 암호화폐 사이클이 대략 17~23년 주기로 움직이는 거 보임. 차트에 표시한 구간 아래로 내려가면 바닥 형성됨. 지금은 그 구간 위에서 거래 중이라 강세장, 유포리아 상태임. ETH 차트도 비슷한데, 지금 막 그 바닥 구간까지 내려오는 중임. 시장 조성자들이 자산 모으려면 ETH가 여기서 얼마나 더 조정 받아야 할지 아직 모름. 종합해보면 USDT.D는 조정과 하락 가능성, USDC.D는 상승 가능성 시사함. 도미넌스가 올라가면 시장은 떨어지는 경향 있음. 비트코인 관련해서도 다들 고점 기다리는 중임.

We can see the same thing on $USDT.D + $USDC.D (and $BTC.D) + my custom indicators. The fact is that the 2022 highs haven’t been surpassed to this day. And, as I see it, this is the target we’ll gradually be moving toward. Well, that’s pretty much it. It’s simple. USDT dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. And USDC dominance indicates that we have room to squeeze. Well, that’s about it.

Simple. Check out Bitcoin’s dominance. And here, I’ve had this zone marked out for a very long time. I called it the “Zone for snatching assets from retards.” For me, the take was as simple as it gets: Bitcoin is worth 120k. If Bitcoin continues to fall now, super-cheap altcoins, as many thought back then, will become five times cheaper. So, let’s say you bought some, I don’t know, $ARB at $2, and it fell to, let’s say, 20 cents. So from those 20 cents, it still has to drop another 99% to find its final bottom. And basically, that’s exactly what happens.

In other words, all the takes that were mentioned over the last six months have played out one way or another. Also, take a look at my custom indicator that I made for myself. This is DXY/USDT.D*BTCUSDT. Here, you can clearly see how cycles generally work in crypto. That is, each cycle there is roughly 17 years, 21, 22, 23 years; here you can see that the bottom forms as soon as we go below this conditional range (marked on the chart).

As long as we’re trading above this range, that’s it… we’ve got a bull market, euphoria, and all that crap. But, as you can see, we still haven’t, in principle, broken below this range, and here, well, we haven’t traded through it for a while. It’s the same picture, there, roughly speaking, on a similar chart, only not with Bitcoin, but, to put it bluntly, with $ETH. The thing is, if you look at the history, every time we’ve pulled back and traded lower, some kind of bottom has formed there. But we’re only just now pulling back to that level on Ether. And how much longer Ether needs to consolidate here before everything is okay… before assets are accumulated by market makers and so on, well, tbh, I don’t really understand.

And putting these factors together, what we’re seeing on USDT.D suggests that consolidation and a pullback are likely, most likely downward. Plus, with USDC.D, it also looks like the trading will likely lead to an upward move. That is, when dominance goes up, the market falls. And with Bitcoin, I just remember how everyone was waiting for it—the higher Bitcoin went... the harder and sharper it would fall in dominance by 30-20%. “How we’re all going to get rich.” But I’ll say it again: no one is going to pour anything from a super-factory with milk into a barrel of shit when there’s shit in there. It just doesn’t make sense, the product will spoil. But as soon as the barrel of shit is cleaned out, thanks to these “true Degens,” the trader gurus. Then, yes, the cool milk factory will be able to pour some portion of its liquidity into the former barrel of shit. So, in other words, taking all factors into account, we conclude that the bottom hasn’t formed yet and never did.

Plus, we throw in sentiment, sentiment, guys, total shit… I’ll talk about that in the next posts.

원문 링크 : https://twitter.com/swarmister/status/2065150773042860462

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