BTC 3.5~4.5만 달러 구간이 바닥일 가능성 있음

133

06-12

BTC랑 SOL 얘기하면서 8년 넘게 본 경험 공유함. 개인적으로 시장 바닥은 BTC 3만~4.5만 달러 구간일 거라 봄. 그 구간에서 진짜 로컬 바닥 형성되고 포지션 구축 생각할 수 있을 듯. 참고로 피크도 정확히 맞췄는데 그때부터 -39% 떨어짐. 최근 몇 년 동안 큰 하락 후엔 항상 바닥 찍었다고 믿는 사람이 많았음. SOL도 200에서 150 떨어졌을 때 싸다고 난리, 90에선 '아내 팔아서라도 사겠다'고 했고, 60, 그 이하로도 계속 그런 분위기였음. 매 단계마다 더 못 떨어진다고 확신하는 사람들 있었음. 이미 살 사람은 다 산 상태고 지금은 그냥 들고만 있음. 시장 입장에선 남은 극소수 홀더들 다 쫓아내는 게 과제임. 대충 마켓메이커랑 극소수만 남고, 그런 캡출레이션(항복) 이후에야 정상 회복 사이클 시작됨. 또 한 가지, 암호화폐는 가격뿐 아니라 참여 세대도 주기적임. 8년 전 시장 들어왔을 때는 채굴자, 포럼 고수, 고등학생 위주였고 NFT도 없었고 메타마스크도 생소했음. 매 사이클마다 새 플레이어 들어왔는데 이번 사이클은 신참 거의 못 느껴짐. 이게 문제임. 신참은 바닥에 안 오고 강세장 시작할 때, 시장 좋아 보이고 누구나 돈 벌 때 들어옴. 그때 새 유동성 생기고 그게 결국 출구 유동성 됨. 이 과정이 2년, 3년, 아니면 더 짧을지 모름. 그냥 관찰한 내용임. 지금은 기본 시나리오가 BTC 3.5~4.5만 달러 구간 하락, USDT.D 11% 근처임. 그리고 과거 사이클 생각해 보면, 큰 약세장마다 대형 사기, 파산, 연쇄 청산, 유명한 붕괴 사건 있었음. 지금은 그런 게 거의 없음.

$BTC + $SOL, fresh blood and what I’ve seen over nearly 8 years in brypto.

Personally, I believe the zone where the market will ultimately bottom out is the range of approximately 30-45k for BTC. Somewhere in that range, I think, a true local bottom will begin to form, at which point it will be possible to start thinking about building positions. Btw, note how accurately I identified the peak for you. -39% from that point.

There’s one more important point.

Over the last few years, I’ve consistently observed the same pattern. After every major drop, people were convinced that the bottom had already been reached. This is evident with practically any coin.

When $SOL dropped from 200 to 150, everyone was shouting about bargains. When it dropped to 90, “Holy shit, I’ll sell my wife and buy more Solana.” Then 60, then even lower. And at every stage, there were people who were convinced it couldn’t get any worse.

There were countless temptations to buy more. And it seems to me that everyone who wanted to do so has already done so. Now they’re just sitting on their positions.

So the market’s task right now is pretty simple—to drive out the last die-hard holders from these assets. Roughly speaking, only market makers and a minimal number of participants should remain in the project. And only after such a capitulation will a normal recovery cycle begin.

There’s one more thought.

Crypto is cyclical not only in terms of prices. It is cyclical in terms of generations of participants.

When I entered the market almost 8 years ago, it was mostly miners, old forum guys, and high school students. NFTs didn’t even exist yet. For many, Metamask was something incomprehensible.

Each cycle brought in new players. But in this cycle, I’ve hardly felt any new blood.

And I think that’s exactly the problem.

New blood doesn’t come at the bottom. It comes when everything is rising again, when the market looks strong, and literally every other person can make money. That’s when new liquidity appears, along with new participants who become exit liquidity.

How long will this take... two years, three years, or less? I don’t know. These are just my observations.

For now, my base case remains the same: a downward move, BTC in the 35–45k range, and USDT.D closer to 11%.

And one more thing.

Think back to past cycles. Every major bear market has been accompanied by major scams, bankruptcies, cascading liquidations, and high-profile collapses.

Right now, there’s practically none of that. Yes, some DeFi dumps break down from time to time, but the market hasn’t yet seen events on the scale of FTX.

And such events are usually part of a true capitulation. Because the entire system of loans, re-collateralization, and endless leverage eventually starts to break down.

I can’t say who will be the next FTX, Saylor, or bitMine, but I think they’ll survive. However, it seems to me that the market still has to go through an event of this magnitude.

It’s precisely after moments like these that new blood usually emerges.

원문 링크 : https://twitter.com/swarmister/status/2065172996827042148

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