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Yes "we are still there", the fact that we rejected the early 80s doesn't mean the structure won't materialize, it simply means it has been delayed b, let's say a month or so.

Basically the range is simple, high 80s and low 60s. As long as we remain within this area, what was initially looking like a distribution that printed a deviation to the upside now becomes a re-accumulation that is printing a deviation to the downside.

On the LTF, what you want to watch is 63,400 because as long as we stay below it the market will remain choppy. However once reclaimed, that entire gap toward 73,700 should be filled very quickly and the real test comes afterward.

Structurally what we want to see after reaching 73,700 is a rejection followed by a higher low. That would prove that this level has completely flipped into support. From there we will break through the trendline that originates from the first lower high printed after losing the structure in Oct.

The target area I'm watching is around 104k–115k, where I would start scaling out. The reason is that what typically comes next, around 3–6 months is either a pause in rates again or Rep wins the mid terms and if that happens, it will be a repeat of the 2025 playbook after 3-6 months we had the tariffs shock, but this time faster and sharper that the Fed could potentially intervene with a new QE and reset the cycle, creating another 8-year bull cycle.

But before we get there, we need to see this summer rally materialize that starts with 73k breaking to the upside. As that happens the 4 year cycle thesis would be fully invalidated, as price would be trading significantly above current levels. Not only that, but most of Q4 will also remain positive as the market stays elevated ahead of the midterms to justify why Trump won the election in the first place.

Long story short, on the LTF keep your eyes on two levels. First 63,400 for a sustainable move toward 73,700. Then at 73,700, watch for a higher low because that's what the market needs in order to break the trendline and trigger a broader rally.

Now, in a few other posts I've explained what could happen afterward for altcoins and the difference between an altcoin season and a market rally.

This cycle, we've had several market rallies. A market rally is when Bitcoin moves first, and investors see Bitcoin pumping, so they start buying all kinds of altcoins, saying "If Bitcoin is pumping, let me buy some altcoins too".

Because of that, many altcoin rallies are mostly psychological. When Bitcoin eventually dumps, those rallies gets canceled before they can develop into a true altcoin season.

Both in 2017/2018 and 2021 Bitcoin moved first creating a market rally and then it entered a distribution phase where altcoins begin to outperform. However this cycle we've seen several failed market rallies.

The first occurred in February/March 2024 with the AI narrative around the time Bitcoin made a new ATH. Shortly afterward Bitcoin entered roughly eight months of re accumulation and the altcoin rally was canceled.

The second came in late 2024 with the AI agents narrative, alongside a memecoin season while Trump effectively marked the top by launching his own coin, and once again another rally failed.

Then we had another rally last summer, where mainly ETH performed while Bitcoin dominance declined.

So if this summer rally materializes, and we see Bitcoin push well above 93k–96k into my target area while dominance continues climbing, then for the first time after three failed rallies, we could see the beginning of a genuine altcoin season.

I know it sounds like a fairy tale story because people have become accustomed to it never happening, but that's not how crypto works. Crypto is an industry that will likely experience many altcoin seasons over the next 100–200 years and more with different projects competing to prove their worth by delivering real world utility.

If an altcoin season is going to happen, it will likely happen only after this summer rally materializes and Bitcoin moves well above 93k–96k, eventually entering a distribution phase where altcoins begin to outperform just like late 2017 to 2018 and 2021.

That move can also be fueled even further by the fact that October failed to produce a new low. Instead by holding significantly higher investors who stayed on the sidelines will be forced to buy at higher prices to avoid missing out, and that FOMO will become the catalyst that allows altcoins to outperform Bitcoin for the first time since 2021, with Bitcoin dominance falling sharply below 50–48%.