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Daily Market Report #758

It’s Sunday after one of the ugliest weeks of this cycle, we are now up a glorious 1% to 5% on most things.

Saved.

We did it.

Bear market cancelled.

When you fall 50% and bounce 5%, that is not a recovery. That is the market letting you breathe through one nostril.

But honestly, after this week, I will take it.

Yesterday I stayed away from the screen for most of the day. Met friends, talked vibe coding, touched grass like a responsible adult pretending he is not checking charts every 20 minutes.

I also bought a friend $100 worth of ETH as a gift.

At $1,597.

Could be emotional damage with wrapping paper.

But if you want to onboard someone into crypto, buying ETH at $1.6K feels a little better than explaining why you bought it at $4K.

Fear & Greed is still at 12.

So yes, we are green.

But we are green inside maximum depression.

The stat I keep looking at:

Bitcoin has only had 1 year where all 4 quarters closed red.

That was 2022.

The year after, BTC was up 75%.

I am not saying this is the bottom. Relax before someone screenshots this and calls me a moonboy.

But if 2026 becomes the second-ever 4-red-quarter year, history at least gives us something to think about.

Gold $4,460. Silver $72.79. Oil still holding near the highs.

Bitcoin $61,866. Dominance 56%.

Over 50% of supply is still held at a loss. Weekly RSI is at 2022-bottom levels. $635B got wiped from crypto in a month.

At the same time, Kalshi traders now give Bitcoin a 60% chance of falling below $50K, with $43K as the target floor.

So the market is bouncing while prediction markets price more pain.

Classic bottom behaviour.

Or classic trap.

Pick your trauma.

Ethereum $1,597, up 5.6%.

Best bounce of the majors.

Still, ETH dominance is crushed at 8.7%, and BitMine is sitting on a $10B unrealized loss.

$10B.

The Ethereum Foundation making ETH the default payment for new grants from June 10 is a small but real signal.

But at least someone at the EF remembered they have a token.

Q2 closes in 23 days, and the three-red-quarter stat is still basically staring at us.

Solana $64.04, up 5%.

Solana Mobile shipped 1,000+ live dApps, and HYPE on Solana did more 24h spot volume than all centralized exchanges combined.

That is a crazy stat.

XRP $1.12, bouncing off the $1 scare.

BNB $582, trying to crawl back toward $600.

Hyperliquid $59.06, up only 1%.

Weakest bounce in the group.

Record weekly revenue above $20M.

Assistance Fund burned 46M HYPE, around 15.4% of supply.

US spot ETFs still hold 1.2%.

A chain burning 15% of supply while doing insane volume is not dead.

And then ZachXBT made the Hayes story even spicier. He accused Hayes of posting bullish targets on tokens right before exiting positions, asking how much exit liquidity his followers provided on WLD, NEAR, HYPE, and ZEC.

Your favourite loud bull might just be your exit liquidity coordinator.

Maybe deliberate.

Maybe not.

But the pattern is the pattern.

Be careful whose conviction you borrow.

Monero $297, still bleeding from the privacy contagion.

Zcash $379, up 5%.

Polymarket now gives ZEC a 45% chance of hitting $100 before the end of 2026.

So after a 48% crash, a silent-minting bug, Hayes exiting, and Multicoin closing its position, the market still thinks there is a recovery shot.

Crypto is insane.

The shielded pool staying stable at 30% through the panic is the one detail that actually matters.

The privacy thesis took a body blow be honest almost buried.

Bittensor $204, up 9.3%. Polkadot $0.96, back above where it scared everyone. Arbitrum $0.0820. Starknet $0.0325. PENGU $0.0067, best bounce in my universe, and my Lil Pudgy approves. BORG $0.1533.

Grayscale filed for a Canton ETF.

A few days ago I was literally talking with Canton devs at an event. Smart people, strong tech, but I could not really see how the chain breaks out.

Then Grayscale files an ETF, and the price reacts.

DTCC picked Stellar, XLM ran.

Grayscale files Canton, Canton moves. Welcome to the ETF meta.

AI remains on another planet.

SpaceX signed a $920M per month Google compute deal from October 2026 to June 2029.

Meanwhile, crypto people are fighting over whether a 5% bounce means we are back.

Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark reportedly told recruits the firm is building AI with nation-state hacking capabilities.

Same week Opus 4.8 found the Zcash bug.

OpenAI wants to turn ChatGPT into an AI superapp before IPO.

Crypto fell 50%, bounced 5%, and everyone is trying to decide if we are saved.

AI companies are signing billion-dollar monthly compute deals and preparing the biggest IPOs in history.

Green Sunday is not salvation or a small mercy.

What are you watching going into next week?