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Daily Market Report #755

It’s Thursday. Red sea of tokens again. So much news that it is almost scary to get through.

All my limit buys for BTC and ETH triggered overnight. I held my weekly DCA back above $70K and stacked it all below $70K instead.

And here we are.

Bitcoin under $64K, every order filled.

This is the lesson I keep relearning and keep trying to tell people.

You always get a chance to get in deeper.

The market does not run away from you as often as fear tells you it will.

I am just saying the discipline paid off, and on a day this red, that is the only thing that feels good.

The leverage is getting flushed out violently, which is exactly what has to happen before any real bottom forms.

You do not get the bottom until the forced sellers are gone.

The macro is the engine here.

Trump’s Iran war pushed US oil inventories to their lowest level since 2004. Analysts at the FT are now warning oil could hit $200 a barrel this summer. HSBC warned of a commodity super-squeeze.

Gold $4,479. Silver $73.62. Oil $95.22.

Meanwhile, the S&P closed at another all-time high.

Stocks at records.

Crypto in single-digit fear.

Gold beating Treasuries.

Nothing about this macro is normal.

Bitcoin $64,309, down 3.6%. Dominance 55.5%.

BTC ETFs saw another $519M out, with over $1B in liquidations on the day. Whales dumped 24,602 BTC last week.

MSTR stock dropped 10% as cash position fears grow, and that $1B convertible buy from last week is now looking risky.

The Strategy story keeps getting heavier.

MicroStrategy is weighing a Bitcoin sale to fund the STRC preferred dividend, and someone built a tool with Starchild to calculate exactly when the dividend machine starts eating the stack.

People talk about Saylor’s 843K BTC like gravity does not apply to it.

It does.

Tom Lee is calling the Strategy sale a bottom signal, and Wintermute says long-term funds are buying BTC OTC.

Forced selling and patient accumulation are happening at the same time, which is what bottoms are made of.

Ethereum $1,802, down 2.9%. ETH dominance 9.4%.

BitMine’s ETH stack earns $1M a day via staking, according to Tom Lee, which is the one number that makes their relentless accumulation make sense even into this tape.

Solana $70.80, down 4%. TVL outflows are still accelerating, down 6.5% on the week.

Eight months of grinding lower.

SOL holders have had no relief for the better part of a year.

XRP $1.20, down 1%, the most resilient major today.

BNB $614, down 3.7%.

Hyperliquid $73.17, up 1%.

The WSJ profiled it as the dominant 24/7 decentralized exchange in crypto. The Grayscale HYPG staking ETF trades from today with the lowest US fee of any HYPE product. OpenSea and Raindrop both added Hyperliquid perps this week.

Arthur Hayes just dumped his entire HYPE and NEAR positions.

His reasoning, dropping in an essay called “Reality Test” next Tuesday:

Higher energy prices from the Iran war, three mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3, a prediction that Trump goes anti-AI to win the midterms, and a call that market highs happen between now and September.

So take profit now.

This is the same Hayes who said HYPE hits $150 a few days ago.

Now he is out entirely.

The product dominance is real.

But when the biggest cheerleader exits and frames it as a market-wide top signal, you pay attention.

His thesis lines up exactly with what I have been saying about the Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs marking the top.

Chainlink $8.21, down 1.6%. Citi reaffirmed tokenized assets hitting $8.2T by 2030 with CCIP as a key standard.

Mastercard expanded stablecoin settlement to USDC, RLUSD, PYUSD, USDG, USDP, and SoFiUSD across six chains, with Chainlink as the connective layer underneath much of it.

The integrations are relentless, and the token is at $8.21.

I have stopped trying to explain this gap.

Monero $360, up 7.7%. Zcash $595, down 3% after its green day yesterday.

But here is the real privacy news:

Zcash executed an emergency coordinated upgrade after an Orchard pool vulnerability, and block output halt reports were refuted.

A privacy chain handling a live vulnerability with a coordinated emergency upgrade, while the token holds up, is the system working under stress.

Starknet brought native privacy to every ERC-20 token with the STRK20 standard, which is exactly the privacy-everywhere thesis playing out.

After the EU AML news, the Circle freeze, the FBI seizure, and now $1B in Iran crypto seized, privacy is the only logical hedge.

Monero up 7% on a red day proves the market knows it.

Top gainers: WLD up 25%, LAB up 20% again, ENA up on the Coinbase Ventures purchase.

The casino keeps running even in a bloodbath.

MoneyGram launched MGUSD on Stellar. SWIFT is bringing 50+ banks onto crypto rails. Stablecoin velocity hit an all-time high of 49.7x, according to DWF.

Anthropic tapped Morgan Stanley, Goldman, and JPMorgan to lead its IPO.

SpaceX is targeting a $135 share price and a $1.75T valuation, potentially the largest IPO in US history, though Morningstar says it is worth less than half that.

ChatGPT became the fastest to hit 1B monthly users.

Microsoft unveiled the Majorana 2 quantum chip, betting on commercial quantum by 2029, and says it is 1000x more reliable.

The AI capex is wartime-sized, the IPOs are lining up at peak euphoria, and Hayes just told you he thinks the highs are in before September.

What are you watching right now?