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Daily Market Report #754

It’s Wednesday. A red sea of tokens on every screen.

Yesterday I was at ChainSecurity learning how audits actually get made. I met one of the main developers from Canton, the chain named after the Swiss canton system. PhD in data science, and one of the sharpest people I have talked to in a while.

Bitcoin cracked to $66,378, down 6%. It tagged $65,708 overnight. ETH lost $1,824 before bouncing to $1,848. SOL $73.87, down 8%. Fear & Greed at 11.

That is the deepest fear reading we have seen in this entire cycle.

$883M in BTC longs liquidated. $476M in ETH longs. Nearly $1.4B wiped in 24 hours.

This is the capitulation candle people have been waiting for, and it does not feel good when it actually arrives.

The ceasefire is on, off, and on again. Trump says talks with Iran are back on and a ceasefire extension is possible within a week, but Iran struck a cargo ship and vowed to block Hormuz.

Nobody knows which headline is real from one hour to the next, and the market is pricing the chaos.

Gold $4,469. Silver $74.71. Oil back to $97.27 on the renewed strikes.

Meanwhile, the S&P closed at another all-time high. Nasdaq up. Stocks at records while crypto has its worst day of the cycle.

It is absurd.

Nvidia credit default swaps are now priced as safe as US government debt.

The market trusts Nvidia’s solvency as much as the United States.

Bitcoin $66,378, down 6%. Dominance 55.9%.

BTC ETFs saw another $484M out, nearly $3B over the record 10-day streak. Mt. Gox moved $739M of BTC on-chain, which is the kind of overhang nobody needs in a market already bleeding.

And then the one that actually breaks a narrative.

Strategy sold BTC.

32 coins, about $2.5M, to fund preferred stock distributions.

This is the first Strategy sale since 2022.

Saylor, the never-sell guy, the infinite bid the entire market leaned on, just sold.

Even worse, Polymarket ruled against the YES bet on a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale despite the 8-K confirming the sales, which is its own scandal about prediction market resolution.

Ethereum $1,848, down 7.2%. ETH dominance 9.4%.

BitMine bought another 26.5K ETH and now holds 4.5% of total supply. They are catching the falling knife with both hands into the worst tape of the cycle.

Either the most conviction buy in crypto history or the most expensive.

Ethena and Coinbase partnered to expand on-chain finance, with Coinbase Ventures making its first open-market investment in ENA.

At $1,848, it is looking more likely by the day.

Solana $73.87, down 8%. TVL down 4.9% on the day, outflows accelerating hard.

SOL has now fallen for 8 months straight.

That is a grind that wears people down more than any single crash.

But Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, just launched a tokenized UCITS fund on Solana with Spiko.

XRP $1.21, down 5%. Lost $1.20 intraday.

Ripple brought RLUSD to Turkey, real stablecoin expansion into a high-inflation market. 700M XRP locked back in escrow.

BNB $636, down 7.2%. The everything-app rollout cannot fight a market-wide capitulation.

Hyperliquid $72.53, down 1.7%.

And here is the tell.

On a day Bitcoin drops 6% and SOL drops 8%, HYPE is down less than 2%.

It hit $75 for the first time before pulling back. OpenSea added perps powered by Hyperliquid. Raindrop embedded Hyperliquid perps natively in the X feed. Bitwise bought $20M of HYPE in a day. The Grayscale HYPE staking ETF starts trading tomorrow with the lowest fee of any HYPE ETP in the US.

Hyperliquid RWA open interest hit a $3B all-time high through HIP-3.

Everything keeps getting built, and on the worst day of the cycle, it is the strongest large-cap on the board.

Chainlink $8.34, down 6.7%.

Citi projects tokenized asset markets could hit $8.2T by 2030 and named Chainlink CCIP as a key interoperability standard.

Monero $335, down 4%. Zcash $612, up 8.1%.

On a day the entire market is drowning, Zcash is green 8%.

This is the privacy decoupling actually working when it counts.

After the month we had, EU AML, the Circle freeze, the FBI seizure, and Iran exchange sanctions, privacy is doing exactly what it should in a flight to chaos.

The US Treasury just sanctioned Iranian exchanges Nobitex, Bitpin, Ramzinex, and Wallex.

Every sanction, every freeze, every seizure is a live advertisement for why ZEC exists.

The market is finally pricing it.

Top losers: UB down 33%, SkyAI down 31%, LAB down 80% after its absurd 84% scam run.

The casino giveth and the casino taketh.

Coinbase also confirmed an 8-hour outage from an AWS failure. Seems like AI coders doing good. 

The infrastructure cracks keep coming, just like Base for 30 hours yesterday.

SWIFT said 50+ banks will add crypto rails. The SEC elevated digital assets to a strategic priority in its five-year roadmap through 2030. The CLARITY Act has been added to the Senate Legislative Calendar.

SpaceX targets a $1.75T valuation in its IPO next week, raising at least $75B. Anthropic submitted its IPO draft to the SEC, and Kalshi opened a market on the offering.

I said it yesterday, and the timing only sharpens the point.

The most hyped private names on earth filing to go public at peak euphoria, while crypto capitulates, looks like a top forming, not a bottom.

When the smart money lines up to sell to the public, you do not want to be the public.

Bernie Sanders proposed a bill forcing OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI to hand the US government a 50% equity stake.

Capitulation days are where conviction gets tested for real.

Bitcoin at a 7-week low.

What are you watching right now?