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It's Time for an In-Depth Update on $BTC

First things first: I was wrong.

A few days ago, I shared a bearish scenario for the first time in months. It was the invalidation level to my bullish thesis, and unfortunately, that scenario is now playing out.

As I explained at the time, losing the high-timeframe support range would open the door for a deeper correction toward the $66K bottoming area and invalidate the bullish structure I had been tracking.

That is exactly what happened.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, this also invalidates the idea that the recent pullback was simply a Wave 2 correction within a larger 1-5 impulsive move higher. Instead, it suggests that the broader high-timeframe downtrend remains in play.

Moving forward in the next couple of weeks, I would not be surprised to see a final deviation below the $60K lows to fully flush remaining longs before any meaningful relief rally plays out.

Does This Mean It's Time to Turn Fully Bearish?

Not really.

Funding rates have moved deeply negative, shorts are heavily outweighing longs, and sentiment has reached extreme fear. Historically, those conditions often precede relief rallies.

But at the same time, this is not the moment to become aggressively bullish either.

For me, the key level was and remains $74K, as I've been covering for weeks.

Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that high-timeframe support range, which aligns with last year's bottoming formation, I believe the most likely outcome remains either further consolidation or a continuation of the broader downtrend in a more bearish setting.

What Happens Next?

Many of you have been asking whether crypto is dead.

Honestly, it feels that way.

Engagement is low, the sentiment is terrible, the social media interest has collapsed, and bearishness is everywhere.

Ironically, that is exactly why I continue to remain bullish on the high timeframes.

What we are witnessing right now is a historic divergence between the crypto and traditional markets.

Equities continue making new highs, AI remains the main narrative, and capital is flowing aggressively toward whatever is going up and making money for investors TODAY.

Bitcoin is the opposite.

It is ignored and stuck inside a high-timeframe bottoming formation.

In my view, that is why it deserves attention.

At some point, once the macro and geopolitical backdrop becomes more stable and the AI narrative softens, I expect liquidity to begin rotating toward assets that have lagged behind.

When that happens, I believe crypto has the potential to become one of the main catch-up assets.

Instead of seeing equities rise while crypto struggles, we would see the opposite: crypto outperforming while traditional markets begin cooling off.

That rotation may take time however, and until it happens, patience is the most important.

My Current Approach

For now, I am focusing on the parts of my portfolio that continue to make money.

Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure stocks, HPC miners, and cyclicals which have significantly outperformed and helped offset weakness on the crypto side of my portfolio.

This is exactly why I have emphasized diversification for years.

In crypto, I remain partially hedged, just as I have been since the breakdown below $74K. That level was always my flip point, and until it is reclaimed, the most likely outcome remains further consolidation of a continuation of the downtrend in a more bearish setting.

Over the coming weeks, I plan to gradually reduce some equity exposure as they're starting to become a bit overextended and rotate part of that capital back into Bitcoin in preparation for the potential liquidity rotation I discussed above.

Until then, my focus remains on managing the entire portfolio, not just one part of it.

At the end of the day, the goal is not to be right on every call.

The goal is to be profitable.

I'll share more updates soon, including several on-chain metrics and structural signals I'm currently tracking and how they may impact the broader crypto market moving forward.

Stay tuned and stay safe guys!