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Bitcoin (Macro)

Just like my HTF update from Nov 25' - I will analyze each level + the probabilities of the given scenarios that might come into play for a macro bottom.

We are currently bouncing off my 59k-62k ORL which I longed with size (SL @ BE), but mainly with the hopes off at-least a HTF powerful LH retrace before lower. We have not really gotten that & regardless of do or don't, the MS = bear market until proven otherwise. So, I will explain what I see for potential macro bottoms if we go lower from a TA perspective.

46k -
This is a semi-optimal level in my books, Multi-HTF hidden liquidity which has imbalances into lower TFs. The level itself is clean, powerful & sitting in extreme discount territory on BTC (below 24' range). I will be very interested in longing this level regardless of anything else said.

But, my sizing approach will be very dependent and nuanced unlike my traditional management to a semi optimal level on BTC. This level reminds me a lot of the 72k level, which I analyzed in that Nov 25' update. Very common bottom target and appealing long interest to the retail eye. This level sits directly below the 49k bottom, just how 72k sat right above the 69k pATH. These are very common buy points for retail investors. Also, in hindsight there is little majors confluence that could be hit simultaneously. This range has already been taken on all Totals, so no optimal fresh confluence (similar to 72k). But, there also could be potential KLS model setup as confluence instead on those same majors, but that can only be verified in the future, not in hindsight. So again, this is why I really want to emphasize on the word "nuance" for a entry/sizing approach here, we don't yet know the context around the level when CMP gets there (Sentiment - news - timing - majors).

30k-
My favorite level, don't know if we go that low but if we do I am a BUYER. Multi-Month Demand with many refines and exact-replicated confluence on majors. This has been my macro optimal reversal level target on Bitcoin for years, never changed. Matter of fact, I like it even more today then I did back then !

An interesting component to current context: Last cycle we saw a -77% drawdown from ATH to the 16k bottom before entering the new macro bull cycle. This time around, the drawdown from the new ATH to EQ of my 30k level is also -77%. Bitcoin has the tendency of experiencing similar drawdowns, ex: kangaroo market saw -37% drawdowns on average each time.

Again, sizing & entries depend on context. I will be looking at my macro bottom targets on TT/TT2 to be hit simultaneously (same chart I posted 2 years ago which forecasted the cycle top). But, I will likely be a lot more lenient to risk exposure on this level's range. I would truly be surprised if we go lower than this level, at-least for now.

PS -
Make sure to consider my upper-left corner list I added to the chart as potential context when these levels are hit/CMP approaches. Those are massive +1 confluences.

Also keep in mind, differences between my SPOT & reserve portfolio strategies. I play with large size for SPOT, so I prefer stop loss and precise entries. But for reserves, it's a side portfolio which I can afford to lose and I like to sprinkle gradually into the market when we hit extreme discount levels using cold storage wallets.

Lastly, two key factors for macro bear market bottoms. The 22' 16k bottom which I forecasted, was not from utilizing SMC liquidity levels. The bottom did not occur on straightforward liquidity levels at all. So, that might happen again. These 2 levels are probabilistic, like anything else in this market. Which means there is an alternative probability we bottom outside these levels. Last factor, macro bottoms are slow. Don't expect a slingshot from anything.